Gore Mountain Weather 07/08

[Harvey44]

Hey let's have a weather thread with a more positive title.

Post your observations and data here....

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=ALY&llon=-74.314583&rlon=-73.354583&tlat=44.062917&blat=43.102917&smap=1&mp=0&map.x=66&map.y=101

[Lbtchnlgs]

Not looking too shabby

http://www.cbs6albany.com/sections/weather/7day/ :lol:

Looks like i'll be having the powder special tomorrow morning

[Harvey44]

Here's a link to GH Lodge's weather station in North River at 2000 feet. Should be a good approximation for conditions at Gore as it is within a few miles:

http://www.garnet-hill.com/weather/wx.htm

Harv

[Harvey44]

The system is expected to tap into the moisture from Sub-tropical Storm Olga, which today is pumping heavy rain onto the island of Hispaniola. By Sunday, there will be the potential for a significant snow storm developing in the Northeast.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?blog=meteomadness

I know it's early but his map has us in the WHEELHOUSE.

[midwestblues]

Can we get some updates on what is going on weather wise at the mountain this evening. the radar map makes it look like rain is going to move into the area. Any first hand reports would be welcome.
Thanks

[JC7727]

I am not near Gore but its not rain, either snow sleet or freezing rain

[Harvey44]

From GHL 5 miles from Gore at 2000 feet:

Wednesday, December 12th 9AM +30F, cloudy, windy, light snow. Rain yesterday afternoon and night has turned to a dusting of new snow.

[Harvey44]

http://www.grib2.com/wrf/N-EAST_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_48HR.gif

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif

[mattchuck2]

Awwww Yeah!!!!


http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/iws0_430.jpg

[Harvey44]

From GHLs website:

Monday, December 17th :20AM +12F, windy 14"-16" of new snow has fallen.

More than the 10 inches Gore is reporting. And I think its legit.

M

[megatron]

I would also agree with the GHL assessment, gore had 10'' at the base and definitely more at the summit. I figure I got about 12'' in downtown centerville :D

C

[mattchuck2]

Haha, that url I used for the picture is constantly updating . . .

I'll use that to keep track of snow forcasts for the year

[Harvey44]

OK...this forecast is probably a bit slanted toward northern VT, but it does offer some hope to all northeastern skiers. The forecaster is serious weatherguy and skier:

http://forums.alpinezone.com/21859-snows-coming.html

Harv

[mattchuck2]

Accuweather says 1-3 tomorrow and 3-6 on friday night for North Creek.

Should be a good weekend

[jimmer]

from what im hearing and reading there is a warm up coming,call it our jan thaw if ya will, but im hearing way above normal.cool for the first week of jan,but then the warm moves in,stays for awhile.looks like were back to our normal northeast weather,kinda knew this good stuff wouldnt last.

[Harvey44]

Get out there now! It should be a great few days!

[JC7727]

this week looks great potential for well over a foot of snow by wed! Don't ask about next week.

[Harvey44]

It's a week away, but it's some hope. Long Range from the NWS:

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28. MAJOR DISCREPANCIES IN
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF WHETHER OR NOT COASTAL STORM WILL
IMPACT FA OR JUST A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS LOW
EXITING FAR EAST OF CAROLINA COAST WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
IMPACTING FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ECMWF HAS LOW MUCH CLOSER
PASSING SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING...BUT
NOT SHOWING INTENSE DEEPENING UNTIL IT REACHES CANADIAN MARITIMES
LATE MONDAY. 12Z MREFS CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO
ECMWF BUT LOW EVEN WEAKER...PROBABILITY OF 0.10 INCH QPF 30-50
PERCENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA WITH NW PTN OF FA DRY. AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR PERIOD FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PTYPE LOOKS TO BE
CLEARLY SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS WELL AS AT THE SURFACE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THIS PERIOD.

[Harvey44]

Looks like Accuweather is on it now too:

Residents of the East Coast are being put on alert for a potential storm when the weekend comes to a close. While the event is still several days away and all the details have yet to be determined, there is the possibility that a storm will emerge from the Gulf of Mexico, then ride northward along the coastline. The storm could provide welcome rain to the South, but may disrupt weekend travel over the Northeast with snow. Continue to check with AccuWeather.com for the latest.

Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Kristina Baker

[Harvey44]

Here's a little goodie from Accuweather that has me dreaming. It wouldn't take much variation in storm track to go boom or bust on this one:


http://www.postimage.org/Pq45Cyhi.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq45Cyhi)

[jimmer]

Here's a little goodie from Accuweather that has me dreaming. It wouldn't take much variation in storm track to go boom or bust on this one:


http://www.postimage.org/Pq45Cyhi.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq45Cyhi)
way to keep up with the positive vibs harv, we need it.

[Harvey44]

Thanks Jimmer. And yet a little bit more stoke for ya. This guy knows his stuff:

http://forums.alpinezone.com/22560-winter-part-ii-coming-mtn-near-you.html

[Harvey44]

This is from Henry M, an accuweather guy. Now this guy really roots for big dumps in the northeast, so maybe he's biased. But I like what he's sayin:

The next storm, which will cover a larger area, is coming up Thursday and Friday. This time, the heaviest snows will be in the Appalachians while the coastal Plain has mainly rain. The potential with this storm is to produce heavy snows up to a foot in places, mostly likely, across central New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine once again. Keep in mind, this is a storm that can tap into very cold air, so places that start with snow may end getting colder and have snow ratios initially at 10:1, ending at 20:1.

We are going into a colder weather pattern across much of the nation. Storm dates in the East will be the 17th, 20th for New England, 22nd big storm potential, and 27th.

[mattchuck2]

Haha, I saw that exact thing . . .

The storm on the 21st to 22nd looks like it might be big.

[Harvey44]

Looks like the radar is being good to us tonight too.

Here's some long range weatherporn from Henry for Thurs:

http://www.postimage.org/aVaoAWi.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVaoAWi)

[Harvey44]

No links or maps to post because everyone is all over the map on this one. While we are technically in the Albany service area for NWS, I'm going with Burlington's call for Minerva. I'm thinking very little or no mixed precip and 5-6 inches at Gore. We'll see. At this point, anything frozen is good. The deeper it is - the sooner we get back in the woods.

Plus really cold temps coming and snowmakers back at the summit.

Should be good.

Harv

[Harvey44]

Boy - you don't see this very often... a plume of Lake Effect - coming of Ontario headed due EAST and just about making it to Gore. Actually I'm fairly sure it is making it, even if the radar doesn't quite show it.

Reports from the field say snow is falling....

http://www.postimage.org/aV10G2R0.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV10G2R0)

[jimmer]

what up harv,2 ta 3 last night,snowed all day,didnt amount to much,but every bit helps,its gettin better and better every day.woods? soon-i hope. you comming up this weekend?

[Harvey44]

Jman...sure am thinking about it. If so would be with the family, but I could make some turns with ya in the pm, when CB gets tired.

Looked like they opened some trees today... that is tempting. If so it would be Sat am and Sunday. They are starting to wonder about me at work.

You ski weekends, brotha?

[Harvey44]

Gore faithful...we've got some hard times coming this week. But optimism still rules. This accuweather guy - Henry M - sees real potential for February, so I thought I'd share:

A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING...

I think the important aspect of today's discussion is the change in the overall pattern. The last two months have brought a pattern of storms either cutting into the Great Lakes or redeveloping along the Northeast coast. I think as we go into February, the pattern begins to change and the trough becomes established in the East. The NAO gradually goes negative, and there are signs the La Nina is weakening. The thing about the pattern, it will probably be one that allows storms to migrate through the flow instead of locking off or forming closed lows. That type of pattern may develop as we go into March. Storms will become more established along the East coast, and that means potential exists for snowstorms. I am excited about the overall pattern, and as I have said all weekend, the pattern initially could produce Big Daddy of storm, like the one I am watching for Feb. 3-5 on the GFS.

[Lbtchnlgs]

Lets hope!

thanks for the update harvey

[JC7727]

Friday looks a tad interesting more on that later tonight. Once again we may be dealing with snow sleet or freezing rain.

[Harvey44]

This may be what JC is referring to - a redeveloping coastal Low. I'm not super hopeful about this from what I've been reading, but I've been searching for stoke, and this was the best I could find:


http://www.postimage.org/aV1MXtn0.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1MXtn0)

[Lbtchnlgs]

http://wrgb-radar.freedombroadcasting.net/7Day_Forecast.jpg

:x

[Harvey44]

I try to keep my contributions to this thread positive...like mom said...if you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all. It slim pickins out there trying to find positive east coast stoke.

Best I can do is from Herb Stevens the skiing weatherman:

Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow over the weekend, which traditionally means 6 more week of winter. I am very skeptical about Phil and his track record, but this season, I believe he is right. What he didn’t tell you is that the 6 weeks won’t begin for 2 more weeks! We are about to go through another 12-15 days of above normal temperatures before any sort of pattern change will bring about a more consistently cold stretch of weather.

Harv

[Harvey44]

Not primo for Gore, but an improvement:

http://forums.alpinezone.com/23648-tomorrows-snow-possible-weekend-fun.html

http://www.postimage.org/PqMKLUA.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=PqMKLUA)

[megatron]

Ha ha on that weather report Harv :D :D :D . It is dumping up here right now with 2" already down! My right knee is telling me to look for 12+ out of this. The megatrons will be making an appearance :twisted:

C

[Harvey44]

Thanks Megaman for the man in the street (trees?) report. Would LOVE an update after 5pm too. If we get through today without too much NCP and the evening is productive....update looks like accuweather is bringing more cold air into our mix:


http://www.postimage.org/aVbosXJ.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVbosXJ)


....also...the rest of the week is looking much better. The weekend also holds promise.

[JC7727]

LOOKS GOOD at Gore! I am thinking around 10 inches but I think we can see a tad more than that! Temps are falling into the mid 20s with a brief period of sleet going to all snow. Look for more snow on saturday!

[megatron]

Morning Update:
Storm is winding down now, with some left flurries flyin' around. Yesterday was a bust, as the early heavy snow turned into sleet, and then to a nuisance rain for the first half of the day. The snow started again last night, and it appears the total accumulation is between 7-10" :D :D . I'll take it, although I am bummed that my knee let me down!
I will report on the Mt. conditions later.
Think Snow :mrgreen:

C

[JC7727]

Gore reporting 10 inches, pretty good call by me ;)

[Harvey44]

Gore reporting 10 inches, pretty good call by me ;)

Nice one. My first ever attempt at an internet weather prediction was on this thread on 1/17...I hit that one too - kinda fun.

I can't help think that 5 degrees colder and we would have had 20 inches. Still, anything that doesn't erode the base, keeps us in position.

I'm thinking we are one cold storm away, from the trees. 8)

PS - from the GHL website in North River:

http://www.garnet-hill.com/

Thursday, February 7th, 7:30AM +24F, cloudy, light snow. Finally some dry snow to work with, 6"-8" of new powder snow has fallen overnight.

[megatron]

Au contraire my friend Harvey. The conditions today were EPIC. The whole place is wide open. I mean everything. Whoever was not there today, or anyone who flinched, you missed it!! :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

C

[Harvey44]

WOOO HOOO!

THANKS for the Update!

NEXT!

http://www.postimage.org/PqTjbIi.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=PqTjbIi)

[Lbtchnlgs]

Looking forward to see how Tuesday and Wednesday play out

[Harvey44]

You guys must have had fun yesterday and today. I rolled the dice...did the valentine's thing this weekend and I'm hoping that this event will give us more for next weekend when I'll be up:


http://www.postimage.org/aVCgf4A.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVCgf4A)

[Lbtchnlgs]

Looks like it's shaping up to be a tasty week. 6" expected from lake effect tomorrow afternoon, storm tuesday. :o I'm feelin it

[megatron]

It is dumping out right now, 6" new since yesterday afternoon :D

This is what we like :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

C

[Harvey44]

Looks like we are getting some sweet lake enhancement this afternoon:


http://www.postimage.org/aVIQZc0.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVIQZc0)


...and I don't know HOW the GFS produces this data... but as of right now this 72 snowfall estimate is out of control with dumpage:

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif

[JC7727]

conditons were best of the year this weknd and it looks to get even better!

[Harvey44]

Posting weather stoke is becoming a daily thing...there's sure is a lot of it:


http://www.postimage.org/aVTnocJ.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVTnocJ)


Actually I think this map is selling us short. NWS has gone with a winter storm watch, which means there is a shot a 7+ inches:

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 7 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO FALL
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY FALL FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST WITH POSSIBLE ICING. SHOULD
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CERTAIN...A WINTER STORM WARNING WOULD BE
ISSUED.

:D

[megatron]

Hi All;

I will post up to the minute snowfall amounts in the morning. But, I will not be posting a detailed end of day report, because it's only half way through the week, and I do not need to be competing with any one for freshies on thurs and fri :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

C

[Harvey44]

Megatron - you da man. I'll take what I can get. For this thread - most interested in whether there is any NCP anytime today or tonight. Could be an issue with the latest model run.

Here's the NWS language, I'm optimistic that things should be primo above 2000':

...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREA THAT WILL SHOULD RECEIVE 7+ INCHES
OF SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE ON WED...

Accuweather has put us in the WHEELHOUSE:


http://www.postimage.org/aVY9aE0.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVY9aE0)

[Lbtchnlgs]

Steve's talking about the 'fluff' factor. SHWEEET light pow for breakfast :twisted:



http://www.postimage.org/aV12etMJ.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV12etMJ)

[MidnightCarving]

i've been thinking about it alot lately.... and its true

you only live once.

i'm skipping classes tomorrow. i'll see you all there tomorrow afternoon/thursday morning.

[Lbtchnlgs]

Midnight- sounds like the right idea.

Mega- Whats the weather. Sort of a let down down at exit 11 Only about 3 inches.

Leaving in a bit 8)

[megatron]

Morning update: 2'' at best :x It is snowing very lightly right now, but it did not snow from 2am on. Sorry gang :x

C

[megatron]

It is now a steady sleet :evil: If this changes to freezin' rain, Gore will start shutting lifts down, and the gondola is the first to go, just a heads up for all of you who need to drive a distance.

C

[Harvey44]

I know the radar can lie...but it LOOKS like it may be going back to snow.

From Garnet Hill today:

Wednesday, February 13th, 11AM +26F Snow. 5"-6" of new snow has fallen and it continues to snow/sleet. No rain has fallen here as yet...

Wednesday, February 13th, 4PM +29F Still Snowing. 6"-8" of new snow has fallen and it continues to snow.

[megatron]

afternoon update: steady wet snow for the last 2 hours. Top of the mountain has received 6"+ of a very dense snow :D . Lower martin on the other hand received 4'' of snow with a rain/sleet mixture. I was actually surprised at how the great the conditions really were today :roll:

C

[Lbtchnlgs]

Conditions before 1 were pretty good. Was up when they dropped the ropes to the summit (10:00! :evil: ) Got 2nd chair, first tracks on chati, before ski patrol! Skiied chati a few times, them rumor which didn't have much snow. Then headed to the dark side which was great, and stayed that way. At about 12:30 we decided to head down to the bar, we were wet. I honestly wasn't sure if i would make it down because the snow was so slow from the rain.

Never seen conditions deteriorate that quickly.

This morning was great, this afternoon wasn't great. Its snow, we'll take it

[Harvey44]

Back into fantasy mode again. Weatherporn from Herb Stevens today:

The first week in March will likely bring a relaxation in the cold regime, but it will be temporary, as the atmosphere will merely be getting ready for another cold shot in the East. We are now entering a pattern where cold spells will last longer than warm spells, with the reverse having been the case since late December. March will belong to winter in the eastern U.S., and that includes, as I mentioned above, the mid Atlantic. The La Nina has started to weaken, and typically, that spells snow and cold in March (and often into April). That’s where this weather pattern is headed, and I would be very surprised if at least one, and more likely 2 or 3 major coastal storms don’t impact the region in the next 6 weeks or so. The best skiing and riding of this season are on their way to many spots in the East; with a resumption of packed powder and powder to those resorts that have been lucky enough to enjoy the snow this season...get ready.

[megatron]

Hi Harv;

I am likin' that weatherporn :twisted:

C

[Harvey44]

Well Megaman... you are on my A1 list right now, so you get some more. This could have our name on it:


http://www.postimage.org/Pq1uITL0.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq1uITL0)

[Harvey44]

They are still calling this one coastal. Hopefully it will stay close to the coast:


http://www.postimage.org/aV29XlVJ.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV29XlVJ)

[megatron]

Here stormy stormy... here stormy stormy...

C

[Harvey44]

Check out this new weatherporn:


http://www.postimage.org/Pq1D3IYi.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq1D3IYi)

http://www.postimage.org/aV2nk7fA.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV2nk7fA)

[mikebike]

looks like 1-4 " for Gore

[megatron]

Looks like soft porn to me :evil:

C

[megatron]

Friday 2:45pm update

Harv's soft porn has turned out to be 3"-4" of nice light fluff, and it is still coming down at a moderate pace. In my crystal ball 8) , I see next week as a big week for snow 8)

C



http://www.postimage.org/aV2q5mOi.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV2q5mOi)

[Harvey44]

Looks like little danger from the mix line which in close to NYC on the radar. The radar has showed steady action for the last few hours and looks like it should go for a few more hours. Maybe more tonight.

Weather is beautiful, wish I was there. :D


http://www.postimage.org/aV2qaw3S.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV2qaw3S)

[Harvey44]

Storm track from this graphic is right on the borderline:


http://www.postimage.org/aV2xFl0i.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV2xFl0i)


NWS in Albany has us right on the line for Tuesday's event.

They are showing all snow in North Creek and wintry mix in Bakers Mills!

I know that will change. But it means we are close to the optimal zone. Basically you want to be as far SOUTH as you can be, without getting any mix. As of right now, we are close.

I like our chances for good skiing, and maybe more trees later this week.

[JC7727]

I am liking the look of snow especially for the mountain on tuesday-wed. I don't think the mix gets much further north than glens falls. I see just a slight chance of sleet but right now thinking mostly snow.

[Harvey44]

Most of the usual pornographers are strangely silent on Tuesdays event, except of course crappuweather. Nothing from Mad River's Josh, Herb Stevens. I'll take it if this verifies:


http://www.postimage.org/aV2DBrX9.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV2DBrX9)

NWS is saying that we've got "model agreement" and since yesterday have gone a bit colder with the forecast...Bakers Mills gets snow too! :o

Megatron...love your new signoff.

[megatron]

Thanks Harv :D Sometimes we substitute freshies for the cookies :twisted: :twisted:

C


http://www.postimage.org/aVE9sr.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVE9sr)

[Harvey44]

Here's what I've got for the Gore faithful tonight.

This guy from Mad River...it's sound like his head is going to explode. I think they must be messing with his meds:

... prepare for an epic week as the pattern amplifies once again only this time the amplification will have us rock'n in the free world (credit - Neil Young).... Flurries could start Monday as the mountain sits just to the south of a sharp arctic boundary situated over Quebec. Some of this cold over the eastern Canadian provinces will play an instrumental roll in this upcoming storm as it will become entrained into the intensifying system during the middle of the week. As opposed to last week, this system will take a more eastward trajectory as the pattern amplification proceeds. The storm will therefore make good use the Atlantic Coast and will deliver a major winter storm to all of interior New England as it continues to intensify northeast of Cape Cod.

* * *

National Weather Service is maintaining a bit more composure. It's all a fancy way of saying Warren County has a 50/50 shot at 7+ inches. To me that means Gore should do well. Maybe a bit manky to start, but should be all snow:

ADIRONDACKS...AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGIONS SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SINCE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING...

HIGHS IN AREAS THAT SEE ALL SNOW SHOULD BE LOWER TO MID 30S... AS ALWAYS...SOME MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN IN SOME SCATTERED PARTS OF ALL REGIONS...BASED ON ELEVATIONS...BUT DURATION SHOULD BE SHORT...

THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THE LEADING UPPER IMPULSE EXITS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL FORCING...THEN AS PRIMARY UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES...WITH SOME POTENTIAL UPPER DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION...ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGIONS SHOULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL SNOWS....

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY MAY PROVIDE AN INCH OR TWO LOCALLY IN ALL AREAS...WITH MORE POTENTIALLY IN MOUNTAINS.

* * *

And now a selection of the usual stuff:

http://www.postimage.org/aV5QbDr.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV5QbDr)

http://www.postimage.org/aV5QgCJ.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV5QgCJ)

http://www.postimage.org/aV5Qj6S.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV5Qj6S)

[Harvey44]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 AM EST MON FEB 25 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE MOHAWK
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND
BERKSHIRE COUNTY.

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL LINGER IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA FROM TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... WHICH
MAY RESULT IN NINE OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATING DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD.

SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS ELEVATIONS BELOW 1000 FEET...AND EVEN ACROSS
SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE CATSKILLS TO THE BERKSHIRES.

[megatron]

I love my crystal ball :twisted:

C

[Harvey44]

http://www.postimage.org/Pq1S7Xyi.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq1S7Xyi)

[rossi]

that is what i like to hear!! im gunna be praying for no school. just need to find a ride up :? :? if not im gunna be working on frontflips in the backyard.

[Lbtchnlgs]

:lol:

[Harvey44]

Keep em comin.

http://www.postimage.org/aVf7_L9.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVf7_L9)

[megatron]

I am going to pray for all rain south of North Creek, so all you little munchkins will stay in school and not end up being a ski bum like me :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

C


http://www.postimage.org/Pq1TyPGA.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq1TyPGA)

[Harvey44]

Megatron you are a hoser. 8)

Lucky for you I can't get up til Friday, or I'd shred it it all!

Actually I forgive you if you give "man in the trees" reports. You too Keith!

[megatron]

Oh Harv,
someday you might know of all of the stashes, but not yet. And I am fan of Bob and Doug so take off!!

C


http://www.postimage.org/aVieFK9.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVieFK9)

ps It is starting to come down at a nice pace, it is kinda like little needles of snow. Hah, I said needle
:D

C

[Lbtchnlgs]

Just got a report from the mountain, it ended up being all rain. bare spots in the morning. i guess i'll go check it out anyway, let ya'll know how it went tomorrow afternoon

[megatron]

Yep, unfortunately it is raining hard right now. Next time......

C


http://www.postimage.org/aVoQ1LS.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVoQ1LS)

[JC7727]

lol :wink:

[megatron]

6:45 am Update

12" of fresh :D :D

C


http://www.postimage.org/aVqSymA.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVqSymA)

[Harvey44]

Guys I think we did as well as anyone. While I think Jay and Stowe will continue to score tonight on upslope leftovers...as of now no one is reporting more than Megatron's 12-16. Gore, to their credit seems to report snow totals from the base.

Enjoy.

At least I'll be on the first Gondi for this one:

http://www.postimage.org/aVxchMi.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVxchMi)

[Harvey44]

I have only one rule for this thread. No "R" word! Unless it's real I guess. :D

This thing, while not perfect for us looks pretty darn good. While NWS is currently underplaying the accumulation potential...5" would not be ridiculous to expect with a map like this:


http://www.postimage.org/aVCgrzS.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVCgrzS)

Keep on rippin.

[megatron]

Crystal ball says 4-6" :D


http://www.postimage.org/aVF4xIS.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVF4xIS)

[midweeker]

Anyone have an idea about sun-wed ? forcasts seem to say freezing rain which would put a damper on things

[Harvey44]

Here's the only positive spin I've seen on next week so far. Check it out:

http://www.postimage.org/aVFQzl9.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVFQzl9)

Well, would you look at this. Another big storm is coming next week. This one will be very interesting in that it will be quite mild before the storm arrives, but colder air will get involved once the storm emerges from the South. How all this unfolds will make the critical difference between who shovels snow and who gets soaked. Here one might counter with, "but that's always the case; you haven't told me anything other than there will be a big storm". Okay, let's be more specific. Currently it appears an area from Illinois to Indiana through the eastern Great Lakes to northern New England has the best shot at snow. East coast locations are probably going to get rained on.

Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.

[B SMACKER]

Tues - Friday would work best for me!!!!! 3 more days before I get to GORE!!!!

[Harvey44]

Brrrr. Anyone hit 20 below at their place this morning?

Nice "Clipper." We just made NWS snow advisory status. See you on the hill.

http://www.postimage.org/aVInQor.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVInQor)

Harv

[JC7727]

-20 at GFL, -11 here in Bolton Landing. -30 at the face!

[megatron]

-17 at Megatron HQ at 6:30 am...but a balmy 10 above right now. If you turn your nose to the west right now, you can smell the snow coming :D


http://www.postimage.org/aVK6BjS.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVK6BjS)

[SKIdds]

Brrrr. Anyone hit 20 below at their place this morning?

Nice "Clipper." We just made NWS snow advisory status. See you on the hill.

http://www.postimage.org/aVInQor.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVInQor)

Harv

Alberta Clippers usually don't tap into any Atlantic moisture, but on rare occasion they do.........and you get the kind of totals they are talking about for this storm. Should be a great weekend. More snow on already phenominal conditions. Gore was a blast yesterday.

[megatron]

Crystal ball is now saying 7-10" :D


http://www.postimage.org/aVK6BjS.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVK6BjS)

[JC7727]

gore was great today! Chati was amazing.

[Harvey44]

JC wins the prize for the 100th post. PM me to claim your prize. Megatron gets honorable mention.

Can't wait to ski!

:D

[mikebike]

OK ... Harv... what is your take on what is coming tues /wed also thurs???

what say ye?????

[Harvey44]

Mike Mike Mike Mike Mike... see....while this thread started out as a weather thread...as the host here...I feel obligated to be positive and post STOKE. Others are welcome to call em as they see em.

If you look at the dates of my posts in this thread, you will see that they all are timed before or during times of EPIC skiing and conditions. The periods of silence are also telling.

I am violating my own rules by posting at this very moment - I do this because of your deep and abiding devotion to Gore.

Best I can give you is to hope for a big one at the end of the week.

That is all.

[Harvey44]

Here's a long shot that would create some smiles:

http://www.postimage.org/aV1hFG69.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1hFG69)

[SKIdds]

The weather forecasts are all over the place for the next 5 days.

Me likey Accuweather's forecast for today and tomorrow which has more snow than anything else, mixed with some freezing rain and sleet. Unfortunately, one can never trust Accuweather. And they don't show anything for Saturday. Most of the other forecasts have lots of freezing rain and rain for today and tomorrow. Don't feed that negative vibe and everyone think Accuweather thoughts today.

Several forcasts put a 50/50 chance (or greater) of something happening Fri night/Sat. I told a coworker last Friday, who declared the winter over at that point, to expect something big next Fri/Sat. Cross your fingers.

[Harvey44]

Skidds - I like the stoke. Henry is a notorious optimist...but hey I'll take it.

Check out the newest Accuweather porn. I think the "w" in the word snow is right on top of Megatron's house:

http://www.postimage.org/aV1io_ti.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1io_ti)

[Harvey44]

http://www.postimage.org/aV1l6S_S.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1l6S_S)

[SKIdds]

Ahhh......if only temps on the ground were the key. What are the temps a little higher up in the atmosphere? That's what will really determine what lands on the ground.

Henry may be a notorious optimist, but he's going even more bonkers now. He's been talking about this storm coming for this Fri/Sat for a week now. Had his eye on the potential "Big Daddy" since last week. Now he's excited because all the various models have come together with some version of a "Big Daddy", the only question being exact track and whether snow makes it toward the coast or not.

In an effort not to jinx any potential storm, let me say he is most likely wrong......but one can, as you say, hope.

[megatron]

Skidds - I like the stoke. Henry is a notorious optimist...but hey I'll take it.

Check out the newest Accuweather porn. I think the "w" in the word snow is right on top of Megatron's house:

http://www.postimage.org/aV1io_ti.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1io_ti)

Yes, the W is right at home there :D I did give the crystal ball a look over today, and it was very hard to understand because it was bouncing all over the place :o

Keep the faith kiddies, the big one is a comin' :twisted: :twisted:


http://www.postimage.org/Pq2ioQ4J.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq2ioQ4J)

[Harvey44]

Ahhh......if only temps on the ground were the key. What are the temps a little higher up in the atmosphere? That's what will really determine what lands on the ground.

Henry may be a notorious optimist, but he's going even more bonkers now. He's been talking about this storm coming for this Fri/Sat for a week now. Had his eye on the potential "Big Daddy" since last week. Now he's excited because all the various models have come together with some version of a "Big Daddy", the only question being exact track and whether snow makes it toward the coast or not.

I follow Henry because I love his optimism. I also love the way he never gets the good stuff in State College or wherever he is...and we do!

I'm not one to be fooled by ground temps. I do think it's remarkable that the HIGH temp for the day showed a 31 degree spread from Phil to Albany. That happens with low temps fairly regularly but not the highs. It's also funny the way we had a frontal passage with out much oobleck falling. If only the front would stay put down there. Down boy down!

One thing about this year...most of the ncp that has fallen during our "warm ups" this year..was frozen enough to preserve our base...so we live to fight another day. That sixteen inch dump last Weds was all it took for the mountain to go 100% again.

[megatron]

"Think positive and good things will come " :D (Darkside handbook page 2 paragraph 11)


http://www.postimage.org/Pq2ioQ4J.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq2ioQ4J)

[midweeker]

Heh, got skunked. Arrived Sun. eve, awoke to rain showers Monday AM. The weather cleared out by 11 so we got a fine blue sky afternoon of skiing in.

Monday evening, the local weather talking heads were predicting ice, freezing rain and general bad mojo for all day Tuesday.

The lovely mrs midweeker and I figured that was that so we took a ride to Lake Placid for lunch.

The ice, end of the modern world weather that was promised never arrived. :evil:

Today our last there, we awoke to the freezing rain that was promised on Tuesday. My car looked like an ice cube so we pulled the plug and hit the road.

We are not happy

[Harvey44]

Speaking of Henry M's optimism, this would be a sweet storm track:


http://www.postimage.org/aV1wZbvi.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1wZbvi)

[JC7727]

I duno guys, I am not liking the trend with this storm each run is coming in more west with the low track which means warmer and rain. :evil: As of now I see this being more of a rain event with maybe some snow at the tail end.

[Lbtchnlgs]

I just booked a flight to florida sunday-thursday. I'll try and bring some of this warm air with me, drop it off in New Jersey or something...


:lol:

[kornfein]

The latest computer models this morning look a bit more promising they move storm slightly to the East, the snow / freezing rain & sleet line is more or less over Gore. Keep your fingers crossed if the storm tracks just slightly more to the EAST it would be very very good.

[Harvey44]

Ok...obviously this isn't all stoke...it's all over the place...from our buddy Henry at Accuweather. Look at all those maps...we need this dang thing to nudge itself about 50 or 100 miles east.

I'm not up this weekend...I'll be down here in the TORNADO zone...but all the best to the faithful.

http://www.postimage.org/aV1FkM6i.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1FkM6i)

http://www.postimage.org/Pq2q6yxi.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq2q6yxi)

http://www.postimage.org/aV1FkR5A.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1FkR5A)

http://www.postimage.org/Pq2q6DwA.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq2q6DwA)

[Harvey44]

Tonight from NWS in KALB:

QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE OF A SNOW PTYPE START FOR NRN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 1.0" OF
SNOW AT PISECO...AND A QUICK TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN INDIAN
LAKE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 32-35F RANGE. WEBCAM AT OLD FORGE
SHOWS SOME SNOW FALLING. EVAPORATIVE COOLING LIKELY THE CULPRIT FOR
THE QUICK CHANGE TO MODERATE WET SNOW. THE WET BULB TEMPS ARE IN THE
LOWER 30S THERE. WE KEPT SNOW AND SLEET WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN IN PRIOR TO 06Z IN THE ADIRONDACK REGION. STILL LOOKING FOR
2-4" OVERNIGHT. NEW HOURLY TEMPS/OB TRENDS REDONE. ALL POPS NOW
CATEGORICAL.

[Harvey44]

It looks like finally the cold air is sagging south on the radar...the big white in the upper left just showed up in the last 3 frames of this loop. Not sure if this is bad or good...be safe up there.


http://www.postimage.org/aV1UiZyA.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1UiZyA)

Also from the NWS...I think we are in the 2-6" range on the snowfall:

SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR HAS ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK LATE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN
AND SOME SLEET. THIS WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ICE BUILDUP OF ONE
THIRD TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ON COLDER...EXPOSED
OBJECTS...PARTICULARLY TREES.

AS EVEN COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW. BY THE TIME
THE SNOW ENDS LATE TONIGHT...TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THIS STORM WILL
REACH 4 TO 12 INCHES.

POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA DUE TO THE
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT.

[megatron]

It's pouring :evil:


http://www.postimage.org/aV1UzncJ.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1UzncJ)

[Harvey44]

Not super stoke I admit, but the best I can do after a tough day down here. From Accuweather:

Time after time this winter, long-range computer model output has shown storms tracking from the Central states to off the mid-Atlantic coast, raising the specter of snow in the Northeast. When push came to shove, however, these disturbances have turned northward west of the Appalachians. As a result the Snow Belt has been from the Ohio Valley across the eastern Great Lakes and then into Ontario and Quebec. These storms have brought primarily rain through the mid-Atlantic region.

Later this week, a new storm is advertised to be in about the same place as some of the others. The very latest information that I have takes the center of the storm through northern Virginia, then off the coast east of Delaware. Pardon my skepticism, why shouldn't this storm do the same thing as the others and turn north farther west?


http://www.postimage.org/aVeseUr.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVeseUr)

[Harvey44]

I guess I am the Larry Flynt of the Gore Forum. It sure is early for this weather porn, but here it is:


http://www.postimage.org/aVl62WA.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVl62WA)


http://www.postimage.org/Pq89E3A.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq89E3A)

[megatron]

:twisted: :twisted:


http://www.postimage.org/Pq8gzzA.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq8gzzA)

[Harvey44]

From Herb Stevens, it's about a week old too. Best I could do:

Why am I confident about the next 3-5 weeks? Well, first of all, there is plenty of cold air available to tap into, thanks to an incredibly cold winter over the Arctic regions. As an aside, the extent of Arctic sea ice has made a remarkable comeback from last summer...something that supporters of human-induced global warming aren’t making much noise about, but that is a different discussion for a different time. The cold air typically spread out in March, as the polar vortex weakens. The vortex tends to keep the cold air bottled up over the highest latitudes when it is strong, and this year’s version of the PV has been particularly robust. Now, it’s nice to have that cold air available, but you also have to have the delivery mechanism necessary to direct the cold to where you want it to be. An upper level trough over the eastern half of the country is what we are looking for, and not just a transient trough, but one that will set up shop for a while. That setup has been hard to find this winter, as most large-scale upper troughs have been parked in the West and when they have come to the East, they have swiftly moved through the region, or weakened as they approached. The one element that has been missing this winter that is critical to persistent cold in the East is a blocking pattern over the north Atlantic. Well, it looks as though just such a feature is about to develop. This weekend’s messy storm is actually going to help the process, as it will transport heat into the higher latitudes east of the Maritimes. Another storm will threaten the eastern U.S. late next weekend, and regardless of whether or not that is a snow producer, it will also help to build the block up near Greenland.

http://www.snocountry.com/article.php?story=20080308133604499

[Harvey44]

From NWS ALB:

SUN NT-TUE...QUITE AN INTERESTING ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ESP FOR MON-TUE. 00Z/18 GFS INDICATES A WEAK WAVE
PASSING OFF TO OUR S...WHILE 00Z/18 ECMWF HINTS AT A POTENTIALLY
ROBUST WINTER STORM FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR REGION. THE 00Z/18
MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GENERALLY ARE MORE BENIGN...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MEMBERS DO HINT AT A STORMIER PATTERN. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
SLIGHT CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E. HOWEVER...THIS PORTION OF
FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER IN CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. POTENTIAL BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS NE
CANADA/N ATLANTIC USUALLY FORBODES A RELATIVELY STORMY PATTERN
ACROSS EASTERN NOAM...ALTHOUGH STRONG BLOCKING CAN ALSO SUPPRESS THE
STORM TRACK TOO FAR S OF OUR REGION. EITHER WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE COLDER THAN SEASONAL TEMPS...WITH MAXES IN THE 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE GFS PROVE CORRECT...EVEN COLDER MAXES ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT MINS THAT COULD DIP CLOSE TO...OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SOUTHERN VT BY TUE AM.

[megatron]

From Megatron HQ 7:20 am

2-3 inches of gack with a crust on top, and a steady sleet :evil:

Think Snow!!


http://www.postimage.org/aV1lfvNA.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1lfvNA)

[SKIdds]

Hey, 2-3 inches of crusted gack with sleet on top adds to the base and works toward extending the season, and that ain't bad. Hopefully the rain coming this afternnon doesn't do too much damage.

Looking at the 15 day it would seem that we need to stop hoping for powder days and get ready to feast on tasty corn.

[mattyR]

From the Gore site - "Please note that some trails will remain closed today, due to overnight weather. They will reopen Friday, as grooming resumes and weather moderates. "

Does that mean that was a lot of rain last night? Ice? :(

or is there a fresh foot of powder, and they're waiting for us to get up there tomorrow before they let it get poached :D

[megatron]

From the Gore site - "Please note that some trails will remain closed today, due to overnight weather. They will reopen Friday, as grooming resumes and weather moderates. "

Does that mean that was a lot of rain last night? Ice? :(

or is there a fresh foot of powder, and they're waiting for us to get up there tomorrow before they let it get poached :D

The top of the mountain, or basically from half way up the gondola, is bullet proof. We really did not get much rain, a steady mist all day, but the temps were, and still are, just below freezing. If we are not going to get snow, we need warmer temps. The mountain is open full time through 4/6, and weekends thereafter, weather permitting, so time is running short for some sweet warm spring corn days.


http://www.postimage.org/PqBbCGS.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=PqBbCGS)

[Harvey44]

http://www.postimage.org/aV2yz4r9.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV2yz4r9)

[JC7727]

gore might pick up 6-8 inches tonight

[JC7727]

Gore reported 8 inches

[Harvey44]

I'd like to thank everyone who contributed to the weather thread this year.

Harv