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11-19-2008, 08:56 PM
It's looking promising in the NorthEast!
Herb's Ski Weather Forecast - Winter Preview Home
Herb's Ski Weather Forecast - Winter Preview Home
Sunday, November 16 2008 @ 09:16 PM
Inserted by: Herb Stevens
As the 2008-2009 season starts to unfold, the weather prospects for the next 4-5 months have become conversation topic #1 among anybody who likes to slide on a hill. Overall, I like what I see, meteorologically speaking, as we head toward Thanksgiving. I do have a couple of areas of concern this season...after all, it’s a rare year when all of the skiing and snowboarding regions of the country enjoy outstanding snow conditions.
When putting together a long range forecast for the skiing/snowboarding season, the first things that must be considered are the large scale influences on the weather, and the signal from the waters of the Pacific is at the head of the list. Last season was dominated by a strong La Nina, when the waters of the equatorial Pacific were colder than normal, and the deviation was quite dramatic. The downstream effects in North America were also quite dramatic. The Southeast was dominated by an upper level ridge, and both cold air and snow were hard to come by. The ridge also influenced the weather further north, where natural snow was in relatively short supply all the way up to Interstate 90. North of 90, snow was bountiful, and the season was a terrific one. In the West, the distribution of snowfall was a bit surprising, given the strength of the La Nina. Typically, the Pacific Northwest gets tons of snow in a La Nina winter, but the Southwest generally experiences below normal snowfall...not last year, though, as the season was an excellent one from British Columbia southward to New Mexico.
This year’s signal from the Pacific is a very weak one, with a slight tendency toward cooler than normal water. Forecasters have been debating whether or not it is a weak El Nino or a weak La Nina, but the truth is that the signal is so weak that it’s hard to make a case for either one. Other winters when a weak or very weak La Nina has followed a strong La Nina were 1950, 1974, and 1989. The most recent of those three years, 1989, featured a very cold start to the season, as late November and December were bitterly cold in most of the East. In fact, I can remember quite a few resorts running out of snowmaking water just before Christmas! They had been going pretty much round the clock for 3-4 weeks, and had opened a tremendous amount of terrain, but when the water runs dry, there’s not much you can do except wait for a thaw, oddly enough. Those 3 winters were preceded by hurricane seasons that had a landfall pattern somewhat similar to this past summer, and I think that is something that has to be considered, as well.
The solar cycle is a point of interest this season, too. Last winter, we were at solar minimum, where sunspot activity was very low. That has continued throughout the spring, summer, and fall, and although it appears as though the number of sunspots is slowly starting to increase, I believe that we will, in general, be in a period of low solar activity through the upcoming season. The effect of a low solar spell is quite subtle, but it works in the favor of skiers and riders. During a solar minimum, the amount of energy that hits the planet is reduced slightly, which reduces the melting of snow by a small amount. I noticed that any snow that accumulated on my lawn in Rhode Island last winter lasted a little longer than I thought it would, given the weather that followed and based on my experience of living in the same place for 20 years. A reduced melting rate can sustain packed powder a little longer, and it can help maintain trail counts in the face of warmer weather, and this winter will bring some of that, as well. So, overall, the larger scale indicators from around the globe are generally favorable as we start this winter. Now that’s all well and good, but who’s in line for the best snow, and who is going to get the short end of the (measuring) stick?
Well, as I indicated earlier, I am confident that the season will get off to a strong start in the East, with cold air having arrived the day that I am writing this...November 16th. That cold will remain in place all week, and while Thanksgiving Week will not be quite as cold, the snowmakers will be able to continue the big effort that I expect to get underway at many resorts during the week of the 17th. Lake effect snow will be plentiful this week, and resorts in upstate New York and portions of northern Vermont will be the primary recipients of some early season snow. The accumulating snow will reach down into the mountains of West Virginia, too, where the season should get a nice shot in the arm. While cold air will dominate the East during the next couple of weeks, an upper level ridge of high pressure will cover much of the West, and temperatures will be well above normal in the central and southern Rockies, where the season will get off to a sluggish start, in my opinion. Pacific jet stream energy has already brought meaningful snowfall to the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, and I think they will continue to see some good early snows. The East could see more in the way of accumulating snow during the week of the 24th, when some of that Pacific energy will help create a stormy pattern where the upper level low remains in place in the East.
In December, the analog years all suggest a colder than normal run-up to the holidays from the Carolinas to Quebec, and I am very bullish on the prospects for both surface conditions and terrain options later in the month. The Northwest will see its’ fair share of snow, and the central mountains of the West, from Tahoe to I-70 in Colorado, will also see enough snow to set up an acceptable holiday. I am a little worried about the Southwest, although there is a pool of slightly warmer than normal water in the eastern Pacific that could energize the jet stream enough to send that region an occasional storm, but overall, I believe that upper ridging will dominate the Southwest during December, so that region could be a little boney until the pattern changes.
When cold air locks into a region, as is now happening in eastern North America, it usually stays in control no longer than 6 or 7 weeks. By that measure, a shift to a warmer pattern where it will be a cold December can be expected in January. Conversely, when that change occurs, which will allow more Pacific air to flood the northern latitudes, it will turn stormy in the West, and enough jet energy should be able to reach the Southwest to accelerate the rate of snowfall in that region. Some arctic air will still be available, but instead of pouring across the Great Lakes into East, it will tend to bring more of a glancing blow to the Lakes and the northern portions of New York and New England, in a fashion similar to what we saw much of last season. I should point out that because of a strong start and an anticipated limited effect of mid season warming, the northern Lakes resorts look like they are in line for a terrific season.
The change to a warmer East/stormier West should be in place by mid January, and I believe that will be the general pattern through much of February. In the Northeast, snowfall should be adequate during the second half of the season, but in the mid Atlantic and Southeast, it looks to me that the first half of the season will bring more consistent snow and cold. The tendency for upper level ridging and mild surface air could bring the season to an early end in the Southeast...the start looks strong, though...Sugar Mountain, North Carolina is opening on November 17th!!!
While I think that the warmer than normal weather will continue into March in much of the East, I also think that there will be a late season reversal to colder and snowier weather. The warmth will be of such a magnitude that snow will still be falling north of Interstate 90...similar to last year...but south of I-90 we could see resorts riding their first half snowmaking and natural snow as the second half of the season unfolds. Some will make it to the return of snow and cold later in March...some will not.
Overall, I think that the Great Lakes will see the highest snowfall this season, with respect to normal amounts. The northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest also look to be positioned for a solid snow year. The central Sierra and central Rockies will have a good snow year, but the Southwest will be a little short on snow until early January or so, when things should start to improve. The East will see its’ most consistent snow and cold during the first half of the season, with a January thaw a good bet, although it will not be the extended version like we saw two years ago. The Southeast will have a very nice first half of the season, but the second half will be a matter of hunt and peck snowmaking and hanging on late in the season...Yogi Berra might say that “the late part of the season could come earlier in the Southeast this year”. The Northeast will enjoy a good number of skiing and riding options by Thanksgiving, and the Christmas holiday prospects are excellent. The second half of the season will not be as cold or snowy, but by mid March, a pattern change will bring a strong finish to the season across the north. That’s my weather story for the upcoming season and I’m sticking to it...
Herb's Ski Weather Forecast - Winter Preview Home
Herb's Ski Weather Forecast - Winter Preview Home
Sunday, November 16 2008 @ 09:16 PM
Inserted by: Herb Stevens
As the 2008-2009 season starts to unfold, the weather prospects for the next 4-5 months have become conversation topic #1 among anybody who likes to slide on a hill. Overall, I like what I see, meteorologically speaking, as we head toward Thanksgiving. I do have a couple of areas of concern this season...after all, it’s a rare year when all of the skiing and snowboarding regions of the country enjoy outstanding snow conditions.
When putting together a long range forecast for the skiing/snowboarding season, the first things that must be considered are the large scale influences on the weather, and the signal from the waters of the Pacific is at the head of the list. Last season was dominated by a strong La Nina, when the waters of the equatorial Pacific were colder than normal, and the deviation was quite dramatic. The downstream effects in North America were also quite dramatic. The Southeast was dominated by an upper level ridge, and both cold air and snow were hard to come by. The ridge also influenced the weather further north, where natural snow was in relatively short supply all the way up to Interstate 90. North of 90, snow was bountiful, and the season was a terrific one. In the West, the distribution of snowfall was a bit surprising, given the strength of the La Nina. Typically, the Pacific Northwest gets tons of snow in a La Nina winter, but the Southwest generally experiences below normal snowfall...not last year, though, as the season was an excellent one from British Columbia southward to New Mexico.
This year’s signal from the Pacific is a very weak one, with a slight tendency toward cooler than normal water. Forecasters have been debating whether or not it is a weak El Nino or a weak La Nina, but the truth is that the signal is so weak that it’s hard to make a case for either one. Other winters when a weak or very weak La Nina has followed a strong La Nina were 1950, 1974, and 1989. The most recent of those three years, 1989, featured a very cold start to the season, as late November and December were bitterly cold in most of the East. In fact, I can remember quite a few resorts running out of snowmaking water just before Christmas! They had been going pretty much round the clock for 3-4 weeks, and had opened a tremendous amount of terrain, but when the water runs dry, there’s not much you can do except wait for a thaw, oddly enough. Those 3 winters were preceded by hurricane seasons that had a landfall pattern somewhat similar to this past summer, and I think that is something that has to be considered, as well.
The solar cycle is a point of interest this season, too. Last winter, we were at solar minimum, where sunspot activity was very low. That has continued throughout the spring, summer, and fall, and although it appears as though the number of sunspots is slowly starting to increase, I believe that we will, in general, be in a period of low solar activity through the upcoming season. The effect of a low solar spell is quite subtle, but it works in the favor of skiers and riders. During a solar minimum, the amount of energy that hits the planet is reduced slightly, which reduces the melting of snow by a small amount. I noticed that any snow that accumulated on my lawn in Rhode Island last winter lasted a little longer than I thought it would, given the weather that followed and based on my experience of living in the same place for 20 years. A reduced melting rate can sustain packed powder a little longer, and it can help maintain trail counts in the face of warmer weather, and this winter will bring some of that, as well. So, overall, the larger scale indicators from around the globe are generally favorable as we start this winter. Now that’s all well and good, but who’s in line for the best snow, and who is going to get the short end of the (measuring) stick?
Well, as I indicated earlier, I am confident that the season will get off to a strong start in the East, with cold air having arrived the day that I am writing this...November 16th. That cold will remain in place all week, and while Thanksgiving Week will not be quite as cold, the snowmakers will be able to continue the big effort that I expect to get underway at many resorts during the week of the 17th. Lake effect snow will be plentiful this week, and resorts in upstate New York and portions of northern Vermont will be the primary recipients of some early season snow. The accumulating snow will reach down into the mountains of West Virginia, too, where the season should get a nice shot in the arm. While cold air will dominate the East during the next couple of weeks, an upper level ridge of high pressure will cover much of the West, and temperatures will be well above normal in the central and southern Rockies, where the season will get off to a sluggish start, in my opinion. Pacific jet stream energy has already brought meaningful snowfall to the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, and I think they will continue to see some good early snows. The East could see more in the way of accumulating snow during the week of the 24th, when some of that Pacific energy will help create a stormy pattern where the upper level low remains in place in the East.
In December, the analog years all suggest a colder than normal run-up to the holidays from the Carolinas to Quebec, and I am very bullish on the prospects for both surface conditions and terrain options later in the month. The Northwest will see its’ fair share of snow, and the central mountains of the West, from Tahoe to I-70 in Colorado, will also see enough snow to set up an acceptable holiday. I am a little worried about the Southwest, although there is a pool of slightly warmer than normal water in the eastern Pacific that could energize the jet stream enough to send that region an occasional storm, but overall, I believe that upper ridging will dominate the Southwest during December, so that region could be a little boney until the pattern changes.
When cold air locks into a region, as is now happening in eastern North America, it usually stays in control no longer than 6 or 7 weeks. By that measure, a shift to a warmer pattern where it will be a cold December can be expected in January. Conversely, when that change occurs, which will allow more Pacific air to flood the northern latitudes, it will turn stormy in the West, and enough jet energy should be able to reach the Southwest to accelerate the rate of snowfall in that region. Some arctic air will still be available, but instead of pouring across the Great Lakes into East, it will tend to bring more of a glancing blow to the Lakes and the northern portions of New York and New England, in a fashion similar to what we saw much of last season. I should point out that because of a strong start and an anticipated limited effect of mid season warming, the northern Lakes resorts look like they are in line for a terrific season.
The change to a warmer East/stormier West should be in place by mid January, and I believe that will be the general pattern through much of February. In the Northeast, snowfall should be adequate during the second half of the season, but in the mid Atlantic and Southeast, it looks to me that the first half of the season will bring more consistent snow and cold. The tendency for upper level ridging and mild surface air could bring the season to an early end in the Southeast...the start looks strong, though...Sugar Mountain, North Carolina is opening on November 17th!!!
While I think that the warmer than normal weather will continue into March in much of the East, I also think that there will be a late season reversal to colder and snowier weather. The warmth will be of such a magnitude that snow will still be falling north of Interstate 90...similar to last year...but south of I-90 we could see resorts riding their first half snowmaking and natural snow as the second half of the season unfolds. Some will make it to the return of snow and cold later in March...some will not.
Overall, I think that the Great Lakes will see the highest snowfall this season, with respect to normal amounts. The northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest also look to be positioned for a solid snow year. The central Sierra and central Rockies will have a good snow year, but the Southwest will be a little short on snow until early January or so, when things should start to improve. The East will see its’ most consistent snow and cold during the first half of the season, with a January thaw a good bet, although it will not be the extended version like we saw two years ago. The Southeast will have a very nice first half of the season, but the second half will be a matter of hunt and peck snowmaking and hanging on late in the season...Yogi Berra might say that “the late part of the season could come earlier in the Southeast this year”. The Northeast will enjoy a good number of skiing and riding options by Thanksgiving, and the Christmas holiday prospects are excellent. The second half of the season will not be as cold or snowy, but by mid March, a pattern change will bring a strong finish to the season across the north. That’s my weather story for the upcoming season and I’m sticking to it...