Whiteface Winter 09/10, and El Nino?

[NPN]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html

[Jack the Ripper]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html

These chunkle heads can barely get tomorrow's weather right. I'll wait til the season is in swing before getting worried about the weather.

[NPN]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html

These chunkle heads can barely get tomorrow's weather right. I'll wait til the season is in swing before getting worried about the weather.

Agreed, but I thought el Nino was the good one for our snow count.

Would any of you more weather savy types please chime in on this?

[Snowballs]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html

These chunkle heads can barely get tomorrow's weather right. I'll wait til the season is in swing before getting worried about the weather.

Agreed, but I thought el Nino was the good one for our snow count.

Would any of you more weather savy types please chime in on this?

yea, Harv. what's the El Nino scoop?

[I:)skiing]

The article attempts to reflect that there is liklely above average rain/snow fall as a result. I would think the issue for the ADKs would then be timing.....when it rains---it will be cold enough for it to snow. Generally, Dec, Jan, Feb, one can say YES>

[Harvey44]

I'm certainly no weather expert. And I'd really like to hear what Scott Braaten thinks.

In the years I can remember that were strong El Nino...it wasn't good. What meterologists call a "zonal flow" develops. Big wet storms pound the west coast and come straight across the country. When that flow is really strong...cold air gets bottled up in Canada making only short appearances south of the US border. It's wet and warm in the northeast.

When El Nino isn't as strong, it can be good. Honestly I'm not sure what the difference is between a weak El Nino and La Nina. They may be the same thing. In that case, the systems come across and the cold air is more likely to be involved in the Adks and Vt.

I still think it's best when there is no effect. Big cold Highs coming south from Canada, with clippers bringing down more cold air. And coastal lows running along the fronts. That's what I'm after. I'd always rather have consistent cold, even with a reduced chance of the big juicy storms. The big meltdowns are a bummer - especially for a mountain like Gore - with limited ability to recover the mountain quickly.

When this July prognostication comes out every year, the NOAA wording is always non-committal. They know it's a long way off. But they seems to be saying there is a decent chance of a strong El Nino.

Hope not.

EDIT: Some NOAA graphics here:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/07/noaa-el-nino-forecast.html

[Snowballs]

thanks harv. i do not miss all that month long subzero, 20-30 below BS we used to get each year. last few winters have been about right temp wise.

the Sun finally shone today, thank God! keep it coming.

i do wish we had real summers here. 80's warm mid may-september. to those who don't live here, i explain by saying there is soooooooooooo much to do here it's unreal. summer here is an absolute blast! here in the Lake George area there's all the fun tourist stuff to do plus the Great Escape Amusement park and it's cool water park have $60 season passes! these are also good at Six Flags Parks Nationwide. we usually hit a one of those too.

the great part....you don't even have to spend money here to have fun. there's more hiking trails here then anywhere else in the country and they're great. there's thousands of lakes and many rivers most of which are crystal clear. the fishing, canoeing, tubing is a freegin riot. Hudson river gouge is "gorgeous" and the raft trip a blast. Lake George,the Queen of America lakes, is fantastic. many islands, rock ledges to jump off, Log Bay Days-a flotilla party. we get around a good bit in the summer and everwhere we go we take our swim suits. see a lake/river/stream stop-change-jump in! the Bouquet river(et al) is fun. it has beauuuutiful waters and it's tribs have many sparkling pools with cool rocks to launch off. can you say woohoo?

the bicycle riding is great. there's many, many activities. just grap a Chronicle and check the back pages for long list of town's activities, theater, concerts - many free. if you wanna drink, ride the trolley to Lake George, drink at the many waterfront bars, then ride the trolley home.

you outta towners ought to consider retiring here. it rocks.


lol. listen to me....i sound a little like Adirondack Murray!!!

[Snowballs]

today brought more crappy, wet, rainy, rainy and cool weather. i've had alotta nights here in the 40's this summer. i'm starting to think this is another " year without a summer " . back in the Little Ice Age, which ended in the ~early 1800's, there was a summer here when it snowed feet in June and July. ponds froze over in July. it was know as the year without a summer. during this period, 1500's-1800's, New York City harbor sometimes froze solid in the winter. people would frequently walk across and have festivals on the frozen harbor. General Washington used the frozen rivers as highways through the wilderness for troop movement including supply wagons, artillery, horses and oxen. none of this could be done now. the Continental Army truly endured hardship.

The Little Ice Age is also thought to have brought about the demise of the Viking settlements in Greenland or was it Iceland-maybe both. it is also why we're a beer culture instead of wine. the vineyards died, so people had to grow other crops and that lead to.....KEG PARTIES! word.

oddly, the Little Ice Age ended very abrutely and warmth returned to the northern hemisphere. then all the people said " Thank God! we were freezing our ya-ya's off. get me another beer, Honey! ". :lol:

[highpeaksdrifter]

This guy perdicts a cold winter for the Northeast. Most of the aricle is about the cool summer weather, but toward the bottom he discusses the coming winter. http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?#extremes

[Harvey44]

Thanks for the link HPD...love the long term weather...even though it's questionable at best.

Maybe NPN should change the title of his thread to:

Whiteface Weather 09/10

It's off to a good start.

[NPN]

[quote="Harvey44"]Maybe NPN should change the title of his thread to:

Whiteface Weather 09/10quote]

In tribute to the King of Gore side weather, this edit's for you!

[Harvey44]

If you guys are up for it, I'll try to contribute to this thread this year.

I don't get to Whiteface often enough. I REALLY want to be in position to get up when the slides are open.

These are maps for Dec-Feb temp and precip in a collection of El Nino years:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/states/trankus_djf.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/states/prankus_djf.gif

Not the most optimistic stuff, but it's a long way off.

And as usual flexibility to get the goods will probably trump even a tough luck winter.

Best to all of us.

[NPN]

If you guys are up for it, I'll try to contribute to this thread this year.

Considering how hard you work on the Gore Weather posts that's a really generous offer.

All I can say is thanks, and I, for one, would be way game.

[Harvey44]

Cool. I wasn't sure if you were bustin on me or not. I can't make any promises. Folks from the Gore side know I basically vanished for the second half of the season - the economy hammered our business and I worked like a dog all winter with no days off, barely breaking even on my pass. I had 19 days total and no WF.

As far as long range...Bastardi is really the only guy who is venturing a guess this far out. Around Sept 15 he'll come out with some more long range weather porn. I'll keep my eyes peeled.

While I haven't watched the weather for WF the way I watch it for Gore...it seems to me that you guys have about a 5 degree advantage at the summit. Like if we get snow...that turns to sleet for a few hours...and then goes back to snow....it's all snow at Whiteface. Another 50 miles north and 1200 plus feet sure doesn't hurt.

I'll see what I can do to post WF links on my blog. Here's a start on my homepage. I added a NWS WF link in the upper right:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/

I'll see what else I can add.

[Snowballs]

another example of " the Little Ice Age"......

i just returned from four days in Maine at the Maine Lobster Festival in Rockland, Maine. while we were there we visited the Owl's Head lighthouse. A local there was kindly giving us the historical yarn and mentioned an very old photo of people on a frozen sea well out into the bay and the off shore islands. He said it never freezes now. ice doesn't even really form on the edge. He said it always puzzled him how people were able to go so far out on the sea as it doesn't freeze now. i put a smile on his face by informing him about the Little Ice Age. AAAAAH! he was very happy to know the answer to a puzzle that had long bewildered him. some of these islands are 2 miles+ off shore.

the rocky Coast of Maine is beautiful and makes for prime habitat for...... the d-licious Lobster! i hope you guys will feel sorry for me as i ate 10-12 lobsters, plus tons scallops, oysters, haddock,etc, over the last four days. rough, huh? we haven't had a "regular" meal since Thursday. :D

if you go, doesn't even have to be during the festival, take a cooler. the road south of Rockland has many vendors who sell live lobsters cheap. the best price we found was $3.25 per pound. after some of Snowball's charm, she voluntarily sold to us for $3.00 per pound, so we brought 20 big Lobsters home.

Life is good. thank you Lord.

[Harvey44]

http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/6527/97342093.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/)

Looks like I'm not the only one starting to Jones for long term weather info. More info on the chart above on Harvey Road (http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/08/google-trends-winter-outlook.html).

[Harvey44]

Some may say this is the work of a desperate man. And they'd be right.

I found this on the NWS forecast for Whiteface...it's a start:


http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/4343/21835174.png (http://www.postimage.org/)

[NPN]

Some may say this is the work of a desperate man. And they'd be right.

I found this on the NWS forecast for Whiteface...it's a start:


http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/4343/21835174.png (http://www.postimage.org/)

No, no, no this is exactly what I'm looking for ( can't speak for anyone else though ).

[NPN]

http://www.skinet.com/ski/blogs/2009/09/viva-el-nino?cmpid=enews092309

[Harvey44]

To me this article makes no sense and even seems to contradict itself. But it loosely classifies as stoke and it's on topic:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3xIDCXcK5kc

[Face4Me]

To me this article makes no sense and even seems to contradict itself. But it loosely classifies as stoke and it's on topic:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3xIDCXcK5kc
Hmmm ... a weather forecast from a commodities weather forecasting group is suggesting that we might have the coldest winter of the decade ... wonder how much they've put into heating oil futures? :wink:

[Harvey44]

Hmmm ... a weather forecast from a commodities weather forecasting group is suggesting that we might have the coldest winter of the decade ... wonder how much they've put into heating oil futures? :wink:

Good point. I didn't really think through why that story came from BLOOMBERG. I'm a stoke slut I admit it. In October in my book this classifies as stoke with nice cold temps:

http://www.postimage.org/TsSSmai.png (http://www.postimage.org/)

And more Accuweather hype:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/10/blog-post.html

[nyspnypd]

Hmmm ... a weather forecast from a commodities weather forecasting group is suggesting that we might have the coldest winter of the decade ... wonder how much they've put into heating oil futures? :wink:

Good point. I didn't really think through why that story came from BLOOMBERG. I'm a stoke slut I admit it. In October in my book this classifies as stoke with nice cold temps:

http://www.postimage.org/TsSSmai.png (http://www.postimage.org/)

And more Accuweather hype:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/10/blog-post.html

welt lets hope they are right accuweather is usually good at these things

[Face4Me]

Hmmm ... a weather forecast from a commodities weather forecasting group is suggesting that we might have the coldest winter of the decade ... wonder how much they've put into heating oil futures? :wink:

Good point. I didn't really think through why that story came from BLOOMBERG. I'm a stoke slut I admit it. In October in my book this classifies as stoke with nice cold temps:

http://www.postimage.org/TsSSmai.png (http://www.postimage.org/)

And more Accuweather hype:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/10/blog-post.html
Don't mind me Harvey ... I was just having some fun! :lol:

I think we all appreciate the info you provide ... to your point, if nothing else, it gets us all stoked!!!

[Harvey44]

Don't mind me Harvey ... I was just having some fun! :lol:

No problem F4M, not the slightest offense taken. I'm finding this side to be quite civilized thank you. 8)

OK...I'm posting this here because it looks to me like that teeny little circle of snow is going to graze the northwest flanks of Ester:


http://www.postimage.org/Ts1dtqNi.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/)

[Harvey44]

http://s4.postimage.org/1EyGDA.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/)

Unfortunately near term looks better than the long term. Crossed fingers for a big change.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Long long may be better:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/long-term-weather-outlook.html

[NPN]

http://s4.postimage.org/1EyGDA.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/)

Unfortunately near term looks better than the long term. Crossed fingers for a big change.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Long long may be better:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/long-term-weather-outlook.html

Thanks Harv, and please keep it coming.

[nyspnypd]

Accuweather is currently calling for 4 inches thursday night into Friday so hopefully it happens.

[Harvey44]

You're welcome NPN.

The long term (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif) is still really ugly.

But I thought this NWS call for the higher elevations around Wilmington deserved a post:

http://s4.postimage.org/1J_tyr.png (http://www.postimage.org/)

[NPN]

Okay, I just looked at the latest 10 day for Wilmington ( per TWC, need I say more ), and the few days including/after the proposed snowmaking start showed temps under freezing at night, but above freezing during the day.

I assume temps at the top of Little Whiteface aren't the same as they call for in the thriving ( but still quaint ) metropolis of downtown Wilmington; but would those in the know please explain snowmaker criteria on when it's cold enough to justify the expenditure, or if, and when you put people out at night if temps show above freezing during the day?

TIA!!!

[nyspnypd]

Okay, I just looked at the latest 10 day for Wilmington ( per TWC, need I say more ), and the few days including/after the proposed snowmaking start showed temps under freezing at night, but above freezing during the day.

I assume temps at the top of Little Whiteface aren't the same as they call for in the thriving ( but still quaint ) metropolis of downtown Wilmington; but would those in the know please explain snowmaker criteria on when it's cold enough to justify the expenditure, or if, and when you put people out at night if temps show above freezing during the day?

TIA!!!

I would imagine anything below 32 degrees but if it is 52 during the day which they are calling for I don't think they would make snow.Hopefully the weather changes in the near future. Someone else here I am sure can better explain this to you.

[Snowballs]

lookin like we gonna need a major change in the weather cycle in order to open 11-27. Weather dudes are sayin it's gonna hit 60 here this weekend for a few days. i could go quad riding, :D , but it's hunting season. not a good idea to anger armed men.

but snow coverage could happen quick. *seems* to me they're getting better at slapping snow down fast.

[Harvey44]

I've been looking hard to find some positive long range weather forecasts. The 10 and 14 day temp forecasts have been dismal for days. In the last 24 hours they have gone from really warm to only slightly warmer than average. It gives me hope that Gore will be able to get Topridge open by Thanksgiving. Whiteface should be in better shape with it's latitude and altitude advantages.

While I don't put much stock in long range forecasts, I've said before that the long range stuff that I trust the most are temp forecasts. All weather forecasting starts with the path of the jet stream. The path of the jet determines temps and it's only one variable to guess at, so I think temp forecasts have the best chance of verifying.

And IMO at the beginning of the season it's all about temps. It's gotta get cold for snowmaking, and for anything that falls to stick. So early season, that's all I really watch .... temps and temp forecasts. I've tried to organize the weather links on Harvey Road (http://harvey44.blogspot.com/) to match the early season need:

http://s3.postimage.org/wFtIA.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/)

You can get the 5-day from the NWS Gore and Whiteface links.

The medium range temps - 10 and 14 day are below that.

That last link - the 3 months T2M shows the NOAA/NWS best guess at the effect of El Nino on US temps over the next three months. As far as I'm concerned that's as deep as anyone should go long term prognostication unless you're just havin fun.

When the season really gets crankin and legitimate storms are a possibility...I'll switch my links around to include estimated storm totals and all the fun stuff.

Blah, blah, blah.

OK ... while the medium term stuff is still pretty mediocre from a skier's prospective ... it has gotten better. The 3 Month T2M actually looks pretty good:

http://s3.postimage.org/wGbC9.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/)

Like I said...use the 10 and 14 day temps with some confidence...and the 3 month....when it looks good believe it! And when it goes crappy...just ignore it. That oughta work. 8)

* * * *

One last thing...totally off topic, but not probably not worth it's own thread. What order do they open stuff at Whiteface? At Gore it's Topridge, then Ruby Run to Sunway, Pine Knot to Tannery next. What's the routine at WF?

[-=koLLac=-]

regarding the routine at WF. It's usually the trails straight down from the high speed quad (Upper Valley, down to Lower Valley). Next would be Excelsior off the gondola. After that it's usually Approach to Mountain Run. That would be the key trails...I neglected a lot of the flatter stuff that runs paralel to Lower Valley (Boreen and Kid's Campus stuff). Once the Gondola is running the trails on Little Whiteface open fairly quickly.

[nyspnypd]

regarding the routine at WF. It's usually the trails straight down from the high speed quad (Upper Valley, down to Lower Valley). Next would be Excelsior off the gondola. After that it's usually Approach to Mountain Run. That would be the key trails...I neglected a lot of the flatter stuff that runs paralel to Lower Valley (Boreen and Kid's Campus stuff). Once the Gondola is running the trails on Little Whiteface open fairly quickly.

They usually go excelsior to upper valley and then lower valley after that things open quickly as long as the weather cooperates :wink:

[-=koLLac=-]

They usually go excelsior to upper valley and then lower valley after that things open quickly as long as the weather cooperates :wink:

True that. In the past few seasons they opened with the gondi running, though I've definitely been to an oppening day when the quad as the only lift running. With the temperatures we're seeing right now we'll be glad to have the Bear lift running by Thanksgiving!

[nyspnypd]

They usually go excelsior to upper valley and then lower valley after that things open quickly as long as the weather cooperates :wink:

True that. In the past few seasons they opened with the gondi running, though I've definitely been to an oppening day when the quad as the only lift running. With the temperatures we're seeing right now we'll be glad to have the Bear lift running by Thanksgiving!

yeah lol if temps are too warm then most likely it will be excelsior to upper valley and then you take little WF lift back up and the gondola back down when you want to leave that has happened before recently.

[Harvey44]

Not sure if you guys have seen Herb Steven's Long Range which came out a few days ago:

http://www.snocountry.com/index.php/ski-news-and-links/skiing-weatherman/weather-missive/2473-herbs-ski-weather-forecast-2009-winter-preview.html

He's a skier to so..it may not be PORN per say but maybe rated R. Here's an excerpt:

The month of November will not be as cold as October was nationwide…typically, Novembers that precede cold winters are mixed in terms of the weather that they produce. October rainfall is a much better indicator of winter cold, and much of the eastern half of the country was wetter than normal last month. October of 1976 was a wet month, and a cold one. Temperatures will be on a bit of a roller coaster this month, as systems continue to move across the country at a rapid clip just as they have for the past several weeks.

The blocking pattern that was in place much of October, which accounted for the chill that most of us felt, has broken down temporarily, but I expect the blocking to return by late November, which will help produce a slow but steady trend toward colder than normal weather that starts in the Midwest around the 15th or so, and develops in the East a couple of days later. That outbreak will be the best snowmaking opportunity prior to

Thanksgiving, and it appears as though the pattern will become more conducive to natural snow in the Great Lakes and east by Thanksgiving week or so. Meanwhile, the West will be sitting under a ridge of high pressure during the latter stages of this month, which will likely slow down the start of the season somewhat in that region.

[Harvey44]

Accuweather's 15 day is now registering a pretty significant drop in temps around the end of next week. Now Accuweather forecasts are "canned" and only based on ONE model (the NAM I think?) but it is something. Showing highs in the 20s. Following chart is for Wilmington, so adjust accordingly:

http://s2.postimage.org/1vImOr.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Ts1vImOr)

Over at EasternWx the weather weenies (an affectionate term in those circles) are split into three camps:

-Turning Cold by 12/1
-Some Cold after 12/1 but Warmth after 12/7
-Warm early winter, Cold Second Half

Unfortunately the first group seems to be the optimistic minority.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=212255&st=40

I know this stuff is very long term and it makes some people cranky to see such long term prognostication. I'm not saying I buy it necessarily, or that I don't. Based on some earlier posts, I'm assuming that y'all would want me to share this stuff.

WF Locals...VERY curious to know what happens up on the mountain on Monday with regard to snoblowing.

Also for some reason I can no longer post images full size?

[Snowballs]

Also for some reason I can no longer post images full size?

Ah, that's just Mrs 44.

She says that you're fast approaching your 1000th post and it's time for you to get the heck off the PC. She also mentioned something about you cleaning out the gutters and taking her Christmas Shopping.

Quote...." Let those Web Wussies figure out their own dang weather, You're going to the Mall!".

FWIW, She's also expecting a lil sumpin sumpin extra nice from Santa this year. Diamonds will do!

[NPN]

Local guy said the same tonight Harv, and that's at least something to be hopeful for.

Thanks again for all of your input.

I, for one, remain very grateful for the effort you're making over here.

[Harvey44]

On a deadline so gotta run. More evidence:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/looking-better-nws-8-14-day-forecast.html

(via mobile)

LATER EDIT: Thank you NPN. :D

[Jon951]

I am a true believer of the positive force our thinking can have on the outcome of things. I have ben told, statistically, 98.2% of the things most worry about never come to be. I wish not t o reveal my source, as I do not want to get blasted on this forum, and have to defend the guy. In my opinion, there is no harm goijng with this statistic in light of 09-10's season's weather. I have not had any negative thoughts about this season's weather at WFM and Gore., just thoughts of powder shots and of first tracks in the uncut deep. With my first trip planned for 18-20 Dec, I look forward to an above average pre-xmas experience. I predict the weather will break the first week of December and hook us all up. The force will be with us....trust me. Clsoe your eyes for a moment, put yourself in that special place on the mountain you love, and think snow.

p.s. I have been skiing WFM for 36 yrs, attended the 80's Olympics (stayed in VW bus on Hilton's parking deck), and have lived live 320 miles from the mounztain in the Dirty Jerz since.

See you at the top

[NPN]

Anybody know what kind of damage today's rain caused?

[Harvey44]

powder shots and of first tracks in the uncut deep...I look forward to an above average pre-xmas experience. I predict the weather will break the first week of December ..

Always good to have another stokemeister in the weather thread. Here's something to help everyone think positive:

http://s3.postimage.org/1cxBsJ.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq1cxBsJ)

I've said before I'm not really a "weatherman." But...I've now got a consultant who is trying to teach me the basics of understanding the GFS. I'm sure there are some out there who know this stuff better than I do, so any interpretations of the data are welcome.

Been traveling on business this week, and have some family stuff I have to handle this morning, so best I can do right now is a link to Harvey Road:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/nws-long-term-for-black-friday.html

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/meek-shall-inherit-earth.html

[Harvey44]

I'm frustrated. I have multiple images I want to post but I just can't make it work. Is anyone else having trouble posting images? Weather posts without maps or graphics just aren't nearly as much fun.

Without any skiing to be done I've been focusing my blog on medium-range weather porn. You can see most of the images I wanted to post over there. Check it out. Post a comment. Bloggers thrive on feedback. :oops:

OK. This probably isn't news to anyone: Most sources of weather info are coming to the same conclusions. Almost all of it good really:

- A step down into cold air starting on Thanksgiving night.
- A coastal storm track.
- A few intrusions of mild air in early December, but nothing close to blowtorch.
- A much colder mid to late December.
- Potential for real cold when it matters most. Dec-Feb.

There was also a very encouraging analysis from Herb Stevens (http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/herb-stevens-latest.html) today.

Today's real piece of pornography came out of our pal Henry from Accuweather. The first snow map (http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=Meteomadness&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Meteomadness/archives/2009/11/snow_from_the_great_lakes_to_northeast.asp) of the season for the East.

* * * *

Today's Wildass Predictions:

The snow is going to fall.

Gore will get opening day-type terrain going by next Friday.

Whiteface will take advantage of her latitude and altitude, and open on Thursday.

I will finally ski the slides in 2010.

[Harvey44]

I'm posting this on this side, because the forecast looks better for Whiteface than it does for Gore.

I've never really heard much about upslope events at Whiteface, but I'm hearing it from various sources today.

* * *

Not sure if you guys have seen Powderfreak's call from this afternoon. The executive overview:

"Given the overall look to the synoptic pattern and with the potential for a decent upslope event on Saturday, I think there is a moderate to high risk of 6-12” falling across the northern Green Mountain spine including Bolton Valley, Stowe, Smugglers Notch, and Jay Peak by Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

Elsewhere, I’d say that Whiteface in the Adirondacks, MRG and Sugarbush in the Greens, and Wildcat, Cannon, and Bretton Woods in the Whites stand a moderate to high chance of seeing 3-6” of snow with locally higher amounts. I’m a little uneasy about throwing numbers out still 4 days away from the event, but that’s the type of system I’m looking at right now. It might not be prolific but it’ll likely be the first widespread snow of the season for the ski resorts."

Scott's full forecast here:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/snowfall-likely-this-weekend-across-the-adirondacks-greens-and-whites/

* * *

NWS from Albany has also indicated that a storm early next week has potential. This is odd because Burlington has a warmer view of that event. Edited excerpt from the NWS Albany forecast here on Harvey Road:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/nws-noreaster-update.html

Actually the entire last week of HR posts are devoted to the weather....so much that one of my regulars called me out on it. :oops: Hey to me...there is no story until the temps cooperate.

* * *

Great seasons are not won or lost in November. One of the best seasons I've ever experience was 06/07. I think there were four or five major storms. If I recall it was a practically a total loss until the end of January. This pics was Gore's pic of the day on 4/17 that year:

http://s1.postimage.org/1Ecj59.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=gx1Ecj59)

Hang in there.

[Harvey44]

This year, this classifies as weather porn for Whiteface and to some extent Gore:

http://s2.postimage.org/6ztp9.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Ts6ztp9)

More here: http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/blog-post_5406.html

[nyspnypd]

This year, this classifies as weather porn for Whiteface and to some extent Gore:

http://s2.postimage.org/6ztp9.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Ts6ztp9)

More here: http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/blog-post_5406.html

They are calling for a coastal storm to be forming when the cold front moves in so maybe that's why you get the higher numbers up north. Cause the Coastal storm is suppose to move to cause snowfall in NY. Hope it snows!

[Harvey44]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
212 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ... PRODUCING A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MIXED PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

[NPN]

Bring it ( maybe Momo feels a little bad for boning our start after all )!!!

p.s.- Thanks again H.

[Harvey44]

Just spent an hour in a very boring meeting ... basically watching the midstation webcam. It's been dumping at a pretty good clip.

Don't you love it when somebody already has control of the webcam and they are really good at moving it around?

Show me some skiers... and show me the snow coming down.

Saw an awesome wipeout on the downhill side. Kid was ok - he popped right up.

http://www.whiteface.com/mountain/cams.php

[Denison]

If I remember correctly you could see Mt Run before, that would be fun to watch. Now you cannot see it (camera mounted too high?)

[tjf67]

Went Skiing after work. I would say there is an ave. of 8 inches on the ground. The rest of it went somewhere, but we have plenty.

I was down in North Creek yesterday and was over in Newcomb today. They got a lot more snow than we did. When I was driving back toward tupper it was whiteout conditions. About 4 miles out side of tupper it let up. I dont know if Big tupper got hit with the lake effect, hope they dd.

[tjf67]

Went Skiing after work. I would say there is an ave. of 8 inches on the ground. The rest of it went somewhere, but we have plenty.

I was down in North Creek yesterday and was over in Newcomb today. They got a lot more snow than we did. When I was driving back toward tupper it was whiteout conditions. About 4 miles out side of tupper it let up. I dont know if Big tupper got hit with the lake effect, hope they dd.

Its been snowing like a SOB since 6 or so. Like 1 to 2 inches per hour. Its a f'ing blizzard up here. YEHAWWWWWWWWWW

[snowman]

Went Skiing after work. I would say there is an ave. of 8 inches on the ground. The rest of it went somewhere, but we have plenty.

I was down in North Creek yesterday and was over in Newcomb today. They got a lot more snow than we did. When I was driving back toward tupper it was whiteout conditions. About 4 miles out side of tupper it let up. I dont know if Big tupper got hit with the lake effect, hope they dd.

Its been snowing like a SOB since 6 or so. Like 1 to 2 inches per hour. Its a f'ing blizzard up here. YEHAWWWWWWWWWW

I have been watching the weather sat pictures of the lake effect, http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php. It does seem like a lot of it is reaching the area. Sweet! Also looks like the normal suspects are getting hammered - Jay, the tug hill platt. Finally!

[snowman]

If I remember correctly you could see Mt Run before, that would be fun to watch. Now you cannot see it (camera mounted too high?)

Yeah, we can't get it to point up the hill anymore. I was looking at the camera last week. Looks like they beefed up the mounting ( it used to move pretty good in the wind), but it can't point up hill any more. :-(
It is still fun to watch, though.

[Harvey44]

The Christmas event (now 12/26) has potential to go anywhere from disastrous to not-so-bad. I'd say an excellent outcome is more of a long shot. Whiteface will probably come out a little better than Gore in terms of what will fall. There will probably be some upslope at the end - so that should help No VT and maybe WF.

Personally I still think Saturday could end up being good, but that flies in the face of what a lot of real weather guys are saying.

This is really a lot of data, but if you ignore the mind numbing maps, and just read the text .... you get a nice mix of reality and optimism:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/the-week-before-xmas-and-ive-run-out-of-witty-xmas-related-word-play/

[DUST BLASTER]

Go to Harvey44 link then trip reports scrol down and watch the vid from Mad River WOW

[nyspnypd]

Accuweather is currently saying this could be a major icing event which is just a mess. Hopefully it turns out to be more snow :wink:

[Harvey44]

Dust Blaster - thanks for the promo! :D

That video has been buried by a flurry of recent entries, so for your convenience direct link is here:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/12/funky-new-mrg-video.html

Listen you guys .... NWS both ALY and BTV are calling for a marginal and potentially ugly event.

However ... all week long while the little pictures for Gore have shown "wintery mix" ... the images for WF have been looking like this:

http://s2.postimage.org/1kluQ0.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Ts1kluQ0)

I can only assume that this means that ..yes ... it's going to be ugly in a lot of places, but MAYBE, Whiteface can skate by. I'm not a saying no mix, but hopefully a net gain. For Gore, a net gain is an even longer shot, but I think still a possibility.

That said, I would be remiss if I didn't allow for the possibility for a significantly serious frz r**n situation. The possibility is there. PLEASE be careful.

Remember I'm not a meteorologist. I'm just a guy who has watched the adks weather a lot.

And I am not doing my own real model analysis - just interpreting the analysis of a lot of other sources.

* *

On a personal note .... the only time our family ever commits to skiing specific dates is Xmas week. (And we often get hosed to tell you the truth.) But it's when we come to the mountains. That said we will still be watching this side and the Gore side for whatever beta we can get. You can be sure I'll be glued to the radar, but sometimes the radar doesn't tell the true story. Any local updates or TRs will be eagerly read and greatly appreciated.

Merry Christmas Whiteface and Gore.

[NPN]

Hapy Holidays to you too H.

Have faith, I think you're about to break that unlucky streak.

[Harvey44]

I think you are right NPN.

This is relevant to BOTH sides ... WF and Gore ... so read up.

This is about a stoked as I am allowed to be, this far out:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/

Yowza.

[twinplanx]

Hi, I will be up at Whiteface this weekend...So can someone please clue me in on to how things are looking this week? It looks like there is at least some chance of snow all week. Hopefully your getting in on some of the action we've been seeing down on Long Island this weekend. From the mtns. website site it seems we'll need a good dump to get any glade's open...think snow!!! :lol:

[Harvey44]

These guys are outta control...

check out this powerpoint presentation on next weeks snow potential from FIS:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/snow-for-northern-ny-greens-and-northern-nh-early-next-week/

[GoofyRider]

These guys are outta control...

check out this powerpoint presentation on next weeks snow potential from FIS:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/snow-for-northern-ny-greens-and-northern-nh-early-next-week/

so we're talkin about some snow mon, mon night, wed night, thurs... :D

this part killed me - '“nuggets” of vorticity' \m/

[Harvey44]

Not sure if you guys had seen this. Was posted last night at around 9:30:

http://adirondacklifestyle.blogspot.com/2010/02/let-it-snow-let-er-rip-in-adirondack.html