Gore Mountain Weather 09/10

[Harvey44]

I have been LOOKING for ANYTHING concrete to start this thread. ANYTHING. Last year I started it, with a 30% chance of snow call sometime in October I think.

Last week NWS had a call for patchy frost in North River, but not for Gore for some reason, so I passed on it.

Tonight I took the recycling out to the corner and freakin FROZE my tuckas here in downtown NJ. I KNEW there had to be something, and I found it. I see that I've been scooped by Snowballs, but here it is:

http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/7640/68959230.png (http://www.postimage.org/)

HERE WE GO!

http://nyskiblog.com/2009/08/sunspot-photo-from-82909.html

[Snowballs]

the Gore Mtn. weather report and the old man have returned!

the return of familiar things brings comfort. as the full corn moon waxs in a clear sky, temps here just dropped below 40. my furnance just kicked on. for the first time in months we have some things we've been doing without. Monday night football, shorter days, longer nights, cooler temps and lots of posting on the boards. this is great as ski season excitement is starting to breakout. the pictures in the " name that trail " threads have lit up the boards like a Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Edition on a junior high school bus. well done HPD and Matt.

now as a sure sign of the times, the Gore Mtn weather thread and the old man have returned!!!

Welcome back to both, especially to Bret Favre. he played well tonight.


Another interesting though disappointing weather observation. the night sky here in the ADKs is NOTHING like the view at Cherry Springs Dark Sky Park in Pennsylvania. I've even stopped alongside Cascade lakes late at night in years past hoping for a stellar view. it didn't happen. i thought there would be great starscapes due to the lack of civilization. Alas, it seems air pollution has more than invaded this great wilderness. believe it or not, it used to be when i returned home from trips i could smell the cleaner air here as soon as i stepped out of the car. now the last 3-4 years that difference is no longer discernable. sad. disappointing.

[Adk Keith]

Something must be going on, I had my first snow dream last night. Dreamed I went out on the deck just after dark to put the dog on the run and it had snowed about an inch. Won't be long!

[Lbtchnlgs]

YOu guys are WHAckeD. We ain't getting any snow this year

http://goremountain.com/admin/db/images/Wildairsnow.jpg

[Snowballs]

YOu guys are WHAckeD. We ain't getting any snow this year

http://goremountain.com/admin/db/images/Wildairsnow.jpg

where are you wintering at this year, breck-ster? still " suffering " out west?

[Lbtchnlgs]

bahh NO, unfortunately. Will hopefully spend a week there or SLC in Feb. Came back here in the spring after doing a little US tour. Got myself into trouble so now im stuck for a while :x

Don't think I'll have the money to poney up for a pass, will probably get good use out of the split board this winter though; and of course going to have to try out Hickory

[mattchuck2]

That sucks, man . . . I'm hard up for cash too . . .

[MidnightCarving]

harv, i gotta buy you a beer for being the eternal optimist.

[Harvey44]

MC...I'd enjoy that thanks. Love to share Pharaoh secrets sometime. Spent a lot of time in there.

I guess I was asking for major thread drift by starting the weather thread in August for god sakes.

I tried all day to find SOMETHING to put this thread back on topic.

[Harvey44]

http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/858/57500733.png (http://www.postimage.org/)

Anyone else going up?

[JC7727]

its getting close to that time again!

[mattchuck2]

Ahhhh . . . 15 day Accuweather forecasts are always accurate! First Snow?

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/common/images/wxicons/blue_frcst_bg/06.gif

Sunday, Oct 11
High: 47 °F RealFeel®: 39 °F
Mostly cloudy with a flurry

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/common/images/wxicons/blue_night_bg/38.gif

Sunday Night, Oct 11
Low: 28 °F RealFeel®: 24 °F
A bit of snow and rain at times in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy

[Harvey44]

http://www.postimage.org/TsRsgUi.png (http://www.postimage.org/)

[Lbtchnlgs]

:)

[Lbtchnlgs]

:)

[mattchuck2]

http://www.goremountain.com/admin/db/images/20091001102548200.jpg
http://photos-h.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc1/hs259.snc1/10629_1180494485464_1621230730_482727_3868154_n.jp g

[Snowballs]

local news just showed Whiteface Castle with what they said was 1=2 inches of snow

[I:)skiing]

Pics of new snow at Gore...on Goremountain.com 10/1/09.

[fujative.]

Lets just hope for another one of these bad boys.

http://media.nscdn.com/uploads/cache/images/1225232240-652567-600x615-1130630678Gore01.JPG
http://media.nscdn.com/uploads/cache/images/1225232229-652560-600x498-1130630774Gore02.JPG
October 29, 2005.

or one of these
http://media.nscdn.com/uploads/cache/images/1225319102-667289-600x450-1225318791IMG_0106.JPG
October 29, 2008. (Weird that they were exactly 3 years apart)
IF that does happen, who's gonna call in sick and go shred with me?

[Snowballs]

let's hope. Chuck there is almost as big as that Snow Cat.

[Harvey44]

Stoke or porn...either way I love to see it. It's from Henry M the (pro-snow) nutcase from Accuweather:


http://www.postimage.org/Ts7ySq9.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/)

[Lbtchnlgs]

harv I'm going to hold you to that

[Snowballs]

Stoke or porn...either way I love to see it. It's from Henry M the (pro-snow) nutcase from Accuweather:


http://www.postimage.org/Ts7ySq9.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/)

200% of normal would be smokin hot porn! yeehaw.

[Harvey44]

Here kitty kitty kitty....

http://www.postimage.org/TsTzRNS.png (http://www.postimage.org/)

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/10/blog-post.html

[Denison]

What I think is important now and into November is some cold temp-s, enough to chill the surface, so when snow falls it'll stay

[Harvey44]

What I think is important now and into November is some cold temp-s, enough to chill the surface, so when snow falls it'll stay

So true. And, so far so good.

It's a good sign when Mrs. Harvey is encouraging me to get out of bed in the middle of the night (from under a 2-ton comforter) to turn on the furnace.

Ok...here's a reasonably current radar shot:

http://www.postimage.org/Ts1dViNS.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/)

I have watched more radar over the last ten years than any man with a job should. Usually I'm trying to figure out if it's worth the extra effort to get it all done and blow out of work to catch some fresh snow.

To me the question always seems to be...how much cold air is available and is it the right amount to push the rain snow line south of Albany? I've seen that if the precip is mixed in the Hudson Valley* then Gore will be in the WHEELHOUSE.

So how to tell in advance? I found that if the snow line in a radar shot like the one above is around CHICAGO ... then we've got a good shot of SCORING at GORE when the storm reaches us.

Anybody else got weather prediction secrets?

* * *

*Here's something I wrote last year after yet another scary trip through the Hudson Valley, For a NJ boy ...the hairiest driving leads to the best skiing:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2008/12/white-knuckle-storm-chasing.html

[Snowballs]

32 chilly degrees here in Lake George region. 1-2 inches forecasted for ADK elevations over 1500 ft.

[Spongeworthy]

I had a few inches of wet snow at my cabin this morning :D

[Harvey44]

I had a few inches of wet snow at my cabin this morning :D

I'm going to use Spongeworthy's report as the first data point on this year's MegaHarv Snow Totals. For those who weren't here or don't remember, I kept track of snow totals last year out of frustration that the mountain doesn't keep a running seasonal total. During the season that Gore is open I will USUALLY use the numbers reported by the mountain, although in a few cases they were inconsistent or wrong and I used the number I thought was right.

Here's last year's total...almost exactly on the Gore Mtn reported average of 150 inches. And that was with nada after mid-March:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/02/megaharv-snow-totals.html

This year's report is here:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/10/megaharv-snow-totals-0910.html

SpongeWorthy...you get to pick the name of your weather outpost ("source") I just made it up and will revise based on your input. Would also like to know your elevation. Anybody can submit a report...either in this thread, or ideally in the comments section of the thread on Harvey Road.

One more thing....the Mega in "MegaHarv" is named for our departed and intrepid treeman....Megatron. The MegaHarv Snow Totals live on in his memory.

BRING IT!~ :D

[mattchuck2]

200% of normal snow totals (in the map above)?!?!!??!?!

300 inches would be pretty sweet (and it would shut up those losers over on AZ)

:-D

[Snowballs]

thanks for that 'tron project Harv. Mega useful. very interesting. Glad we harv it.

i wonder if 150 inches is traditionally Gore's average snowfall. i seem to recall reading about Gore 8 years ago and they said something like 180 or maybe 220 inches average snowfall. Anybody know for sure? Are we losing snowfall?

It's weird Gore doesn't release annual snowfall info anymore. I know they used to. What gives?

[Spongeworthy]

It's weird Gore doesn't release annual snowfall info anymore. I know they used to. What gives?Someone should make a FOIL request :twisted:

[Snowballs]

Wholly Snike! North central Pennsylvania is forecasted to get 4-12 inches of snow by Saturday morning.

[Harvey44]

I admit it...I don't know...what's a FOIL request?

Hey I know this won't amount to anything, but it's a pretty cool forecast for October:

http://www.postimage.org/Ts1NO75i.png (http://www.postimage.org/)

[Snowballs]

Freedom of information.......Like does anyone know what Gore used to receive for annual snowfall say 10 yrs ago?

[mattchuck2]

I admit it...I don't know...what's a FOIL request?

Hey I know this won't amount to anything, but it's a pretty cool forecast for October:

http://www.postimage.org/Ts1NO75i.png (http://www.postimage.org/)

NICE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[nyspnypd]

I admit it...I don't know...what's a FOIL request?

Hey I know this won't amount to anything, but it's a pretty cool forecast for October:

http://www.postimage.org/Ts1NO75i.png (http://www.postimage.org/)

A FOIL request refers to the freedom of information law This act allows for the full or partial disclosure of previously unreleased information and documents controlled by the United States Government. The Act defines agency records subject to disclosure, outlines mandatory disclosure procedures and grants nine exemptions to the statute.

[Harvey44]

Amazing how the posting drops way down when the temps rise. Not just here but all across the internets...AZ, FTO, etc....now that the Sunday River thing has died down. I been hard pressed to find any thing stokeworthy to post weatherwise. Sure has been beautiful by the standard definition. But I'm one of those nutcases that likes it cold and cloudy.

OK. There is probably nothing less reliable than an Accuweather 15 day forecast. This really makes me laugh:

http://s1.postimage.org/LNZQr.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/)

So count on it. Snow showers in the morning on Friday Nov 6.

* * *

One thing that I do believe is that long term TEMP forecasts are slightly more reliable than long term PRECIP forecasts. So here's what I got....colder than seasonable temps returning around the first of the month:

http://s1.postimage.org/LMk4r.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/)

If I was smart, I'da started an "Adk Ski Weather 09/10" thread in the General Discussion, to cut down on my post count. :roll: Definitely will take that approach next year.

[Snowballs]

here's a bone to gnaw on.

http://www.poststar.com/news/local/article_d2a677c2-c119-11de-8965-001cc4c03286.html

[Harvey44]

At least they are using the word "cold" here and there...

LONG TERM from NWS ALY

SUN NT-WED... PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITHIN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLDER AIR TRAVERSING THE RELATIVELY TEPID GREAT LAKES WATERS...SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW AREAS...WITH THE TREND TOWARD SNOW SHOWERS BY TUE NT INTO WED.

DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW COULD EVEN REACH VALLEY AREAS...FROM ALBANY N AND W...ON TUE...COOLING A BIT BY WED. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO LOWER AND MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS.

[Lbtchnlgs]

THey're calling for rain sat/sunday. Saturdays low down here is 40, there's gotta be a chance for some white up there.

[fujative.]

or one of these
http://media.nscdn.com/uploads/cache/images/1225319102-667289-600x450-1225318791IMG_0106.JPG
October 29, 2008. (Weird that they were exactly 3 years apart)
IF that does happen, who's gonna call in sick and go shred with me?

Ahh this was exactly one year ago. It would be very convenient if that happened again. I could go for some shred.

[Harvey44]

I know it's too soon for this kind of stuff, but maybe it will keep me from posting TRs from LAST YEAR in the TRAIL PIC THREAD for god sakes:

* * *

LONG TERM from NWS ALY

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WESTERN ARCTIC WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES /ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL/ TO OUR REGION. A WESTERLY FLOW AND AREAS OF UPSLOPING WILL MEAN LAKE ENHANCED/ OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE WITH NORTHWARD RIDGING PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING GENERALLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/MIX AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.

[Snowballs]

here's a tease.

local weather just reported a small storm approaching. reports of wet snow mixing in with the rain at higher elevations in western Fulton County. Speculator/Lake Pleasant may get an inch... heading east and will pass over Gore...maybe Face.

i know it's not much but they are using the S word!

[fujative.]

here's a tease.

local weather just reported a small storm approaching. reports of wet snow mixing in with the rain at higher elevations in western Fulton County. Speculator/Lake Pleasant may get an inch... heading east and will pass over Gore...maybe Face.

i know it's not much but they are using the S word!

A friend just told me it was snowing real hard in Speculator.
I was about to go road trippin just to see some snow. I need to brush up on my winter driving anyways :lol:

This is in someone I know's backyard right in North Creek.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODD0VSolDmQ&feature=player_embedded

Also, a friend just said they had 2-3 inches in Piseco, just west of Lake Pleasant.


... It's coming! :D

[Harvey44]

LONG TERM...from NWS ALY

THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH...RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FORECAST PERIOD...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1500 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

[Lbtchnlgs]

its going to be a low snowfall season

[JC7727]

its looking warm the next 2 weeks, opening for black friday is not looking good :(

[MidnightCarving]

personal prediction:
epic freeze t-giving week, followed by 14 inch storm thanksgiving day, followed by sunshine skies friday morning, high of 29 degrees.

[nyspnypd]

personal prediction:
epic freeze t-giving week, followed by 14 inch storm thanksgiving day, followed by sunshine skies friday morning, high of 29 degrees.

I am sorry but keep dreaming :lol: Wish it would happen :?

[Snowballs]

they saying 60 degrees this weekend.

Wish Harv could come a riding in here with good news.

[Harvey44]

Gang.... you know when I am laying this low I'm having real trouble find the good stuff.

I've used my rudimentary blogging skills to start feeding other sources into Harvey Road. It saves me time when I'm trying to keep up with the weather...and earn a living at the same time. Check it out some time (Look MA no links!).

Yea ... I:)skiing called me out for my recent linking binge. I know I've been a blog slut lately ... linking all kindsa crappola.

So this time .... instead of linking you to Harvey Road - I'm sending you to the source. AJ from FIS has a Thanksgiving Forecast up that would be hilarious if it wasn't semi-tragic. He takes all this data...tells you Black Friday looks DOOMED ...and then somehow gives you hope. Check it out:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/thanksgiving-weekend-giving-thanks-or-hiking-for-mank/

He's my kinda weatherman.

[adkskier]

Has anyone purchased the Old Farmer's Almanac? I'm curious what they predict for us. The Black Friday opening is always sketchy. How many years has Gore poured out thousands of $$ of snow making only to see a meltdown and downpour begin a day or two before Turkey Day? As much as we look forward to getting back on the hill, it's a crap shoot and Top Ridge gets crowded very quickly.

[JC7727]

I looking at the begining of dec as a possible pattern flip

[Denison]

..the Old Farmer's Almanac? I'm curious what they predict for us.

It says "cold and snowy winter for northeast". I didn't buy it, just looked

[Denison]

Does not look too good for nov 27 opening:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Harvey44]

Take a look Denison. Your link has CHANGED!

http://nyskiblog.com/2009/11/nws-jumps-on-band-wagon.html

Accuweather has been calling this.... but this is now coming from NWS - more credible source. The pattern change is looking a *little* more legit.

Denny could still be right about the opening but I like being in the blue zone for the first time in quite a while.

[Snowballs]

I looking at the begining of dec as a possible pattern flip

I'm with you. i remember a few years ago coming home from an outta state turkey week trip and the weather was iffy. a week or so later it was ZERO and below for several weeks.

Ah, but just think of last year's December dream snow storm. 'like a date with Mariah Carey :D !

[Denison]

..I like being in the blue zone for the first time in quite a while.

they all now call for cold starting sometime around Thanksgiving. I'm not counting on that weekend though.

I'll be in the area on Saturday to finalize my rental and if Topridge is open - i'll ski it for few hours.

[Harvey44]

The evidence is building for a change:

http://s4.postimage.org/JfQxS.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aVJfQxS)

I've looked at low temps this week and next and until that cold blast comes down.... it's going to require some serious commitment to get Topridge open. Everything I've seen has the cold air coming in at the end of the week. As we saw yesterday the 10-14 day temp forecast has flipped, but the 6-10 day is still stuck on ugly. It should change tomorrow.

There are actually colder lows this week than early next. Not sure that will help.

Anybody sees an operating gun ... post 'er up.

I told my wife about Spongeworthy's Facebook Alert...she said... I'll pack my best sundress. :roll:

Please HPD or anyone... if you show this technically challenged blogger how to post jpegs at regular size I'd be most grateful.

[mattchuck2]

http://s4.postimage.org/JfQxS-f453b1ae07461f5b2ca4447e826449dc.jpg

It's just "[img]" and then the location of the picture then close the img

[Harvey44]

Ullr - snow here please:

http://pro.accuweather.com/nx_mosaic_640x480c/sir/inmasirny_.gif

[mattchuck2]

So only images housed at an address can be full size?



I guess . . . That's the way I've always done it.

[Harvey44]

Bizarre on the jpegs. They always worked in full size until about 2 weeks ago.

OK.. here's what I got.

First, and probably most important... not sure how many of you know Powderfreak. He's a great skier and a great weatherman. Anyway not sure if you saw it but Billski on AZ mentioned that it wasn't a good sign when Powderfreak was silent. Powderfreak got the word and posted this:

"I was starting to get excited for winter in October but then this November has been about as boring as they come wx wise... but winter's coming. From what I've seen this fall my gut says December is a roller coaster ride (transient periods of cold/snow, then thaw, repeat) but then the heart of winter during January and February is white gold."

If anyone know he does.

Not sure if you saw this on my site from the NWS. A little more reinforcement to the idea that some cold air is headed our way:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/looking-better-nws-8-14-day-forecast.html

And there's this piece of weather porn from the hype-meisters at Accuweather:

http://s3.postimage.org/138sf9.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq138sf9)

This image is consistent with what Accuweather has been saying all along. But there something that doesn't make sense. AccuW and now NWS have both been implying that the core of the cold will come down in the center of the US and start nudging eastward. For me that graphic above is funky... if there's a storm coming across the southern states...it should follow the edge of the cold air. If it's going to be a coastal storm there should be some cold air somewhere in the Northeast keeping it out along the coast. Just sayin.

As far as snowmaking.... props to Gore for having the stones to give it a try. I think I mentioned somewhere farther up in this thread that tonight and tomorrow night look to be the coldest nights between now and Thanksgiving. Let's hope that corner turn is on the coast and not in Ohio.

EDITED for boneheaded comment removal.

[x10003q]

Take it easy on Herb Stevens and read his winter theories:
http://www.snocountry.com/index.php/ski-news-and-links/skiing-weatherman/weather-missive.html

He is predicting colder than normal for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic with normal snow and above average snow from PA south.

[Harvey44]

I didn't mean to imply any disrespect to Herb Stevens. He's a great meteorologist, and very readable as well. I follow Weather Missive very closely. It one of the ski blogs that I feed on Harvey Road.

I'll edit my post above to remove any confusion.

I really meant to say that powderfreak (http://www.uvm.edu/~sbraaten/Stowe%2008/February%207/IMG_1212_edited.jpg) is a awesome and fanatical skier who has devoted a major part of his being to our sport, as well as being serious meteorologist.

Here's powderfreak's official take on the upcoming period from FIS. I think it's definitely worth reading:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/when-will-the-majority-of-ski-resorts-be-able-to-open/

Again, apologies.

[JC7727]

Powderfreak is not a meteorologist but is very well versed on the uniquie microclimats of NNE and Upstate NY. He is very good at predicting upslope snows. I am hopefull on a pattern change around turkey day, with most of decemeber looking pretty good.

[Snowballs]

Powderfreak is not a meteorologist but is very well versed on the uniquie microclimats of NNE and Upstate NY. He is very good at predicting upslope snows. I am hopefull on a pattern change around turkey day, with most of decemeber looking pretty good.

OK that was interesting. He seems to be highly regarded by ya'll. wonder how a none meterologist becomes so well versed in unique microclimates? insightful intellect, perservance and good recall.

[x10003q]

I didn't mean to imply any disrespect to Herb Stevens. He's a great meteorologist, and very readable as well. I follow Weather Missive very closely. It one of the ski blogs that I feed on Harvey Road.

I'll edit my post above to remove any confusion.

I really meant to say that powderfreak (http://www.uvm.edu/~sbraaten/Stowe%2008/February%207/IMG_1212_edited.jpg) is a awesome and fanatical skier who has devoted a major part of his being to our sport, as well as being serious meteorologist.

Here's powderfreak's official take on the upcoming period from FIS. I think it's definitely worth reading:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/when-will-the-majority-of-ski-resorts-be-able-to-open/

Again, apologies.

No need for apologies. I was just being a little sarcastic. Maybe I should have used :D. I find Herb to be pretty good at the long term view.

[Lbtchnlgs]

well, last night sucked

[Snowballs]

...and today is warm, clear skies and very sunny. will hit 55*....60*, 40* for a low tonight. think i'll go wax some skis, right after i turn on the AC. What the heck. Harv....HELP!!!

[Snowballs]

.Harv....HELP!!!

:shock: :shock: :shock: Wow! it worked! the clouds rolled in and temps fell 12* in the last 2 hours. 42* now.

That Harv....He's Good!!!

[fujative.]

AccuWeather 15 day forecasts never lie!
http://www.accuweather.com/us/ny/north-creek/12853/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&metric=0

[Harvey44]

Fuje...while Accuweather's credibility is sometimes questionable, I do put some stock in the drop in temps they are showing.

Chris - please cheer up.

* * *

This is hot off the press from NWS ALY. It's not exactly stoke but we clearly need a "game changer." I assume they don't use that phrase lightly:

.LONG TERM - MON NIGHT THROUGH SAT

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. (Blah, blah, blah)...THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

I will continue the search for good news. Not sure if y'all check the Whiteface thread, if so sorry for the double post:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/nws-long-term-for-black-friday.html

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/meek-shall-inherit-earth.html

[fujative.]

Fuje...while Accuweather's credibility is sometimes questionable, I do put some stock in the drop in temps they are showing.

Yeah I hear ya. I'd be really happy if we get maybe 6 inches outta that. I just need some positive reinforcement.

[nyspnypd]

AccuWeather 15 day forecasts never lie!
http://www.accuweather.com/us/ny/north-creek/12853/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&metric=0

This is consistent with what everyone is saying a cool down around thanksgiving with some unsettled whether. (My local weather man send there is a chance for a snowstorm after thanksgiving) but we will have too see about that.

[Denison]

NOAA Climate Prediction for next 6-10 days weeks:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

as of Monday, 22 it looks quite promising (for first days in December)

[Harvey44]

While the forecast may not lead to a bunch of skiing immediately, it's fun stuff to see. Looks like the western Daks may get a decent amount out of it all. Still I wonder how much will stick with ground as warm as it is.

Should be fun to see the pictures posted Sun night by everyone taking part in the mad dash to Jay Peak and No Vt. The dumpage potential up there is big.

One thing is for sure - I can't remember seeing this much CONSENSUS for weather forecasting sources on the long range. Accuweather, the Accuweather bloggers, NWS, Herb Stevens and now Josh Fox...they all are calling for a excellent midwinter for eastern skiers.

Not too productive at work yesterday. Unless you count spending the afternoon scouring the internet for weather porn. Instead of reposting it all here - your friendly neighborhood spiderman would appreciate it if you'd check it all out (http://harvey44.blogspot.com/). Make sure to check out the 72 Hr Snowfall Forecast on the righthand side.

I could post all the individual links but that seems kinda pointless. I hope folks think I'm striking a reasonable balance between posting content here vs links to Harvey Road.

[Lbtchnlgs]

It'll all work out in the end, I've been frequenting Harvey Road, pretty cozy over there



I'm already tired of this 'storm'. I think it's just getting a little hype because of the Holiday. Thursday looks interesting..

[Harvey44]

Thanks Chris. Always love getting your input at HR.

Intellicast:

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/hfd_None_anim.gif

Monday and Tuesday night look really good for snowmaking. Especially Monday.

I know there are other issues to deal with later in the week.

[Lbtchnlgs]

Have been too busy to get involved in any forcasts, but I really had my heart set on Thursday as producing at least a few inches of snow. Nope.. Tut Tut..


Looks like more ****'in RAIN :roll:

[fujative.]

Have been too busy to get involved in any forcasts, but I really had my heart set on Thursday as producing at least a few inches of snow. Nope.. Tut Tut..


Looks like more ****'in RAIN :roll:

Make sure to head up Friday for the biggest demo day of the season! I wonder how they're gonna try to pull that one off with no snow..
:roll:

[Spongeworthy]

Here's the scoop from a snowmaker on Gore. They're gonna try and hit it hard tonight, but opening Friday is still a long shot.

Three days of missed skiing and counting :evil:

[Harvey44]

Tonight and to a lesser extent tomorrow night... are the best chances for snowmaking we've had in quite a while. Still...the late week forecast isn't pretty. But I can totally understand that Gore has to go for it.

Here's a cool new NWS graphic that I dug up with the help of my feed aggregator - the RSS section on the bottom of Harvey Road. It show the track of surface lows, with a "probability cloud." It kinda like when they are projecting the track of a hurricane and the storm track widens the farther out you go. Kinda.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif

From NWS ALY:

THE (MODELS) HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK AND TIMING OF STORM...WITH THE LOW REACHING WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK BY 12Z/THURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WEDS NIGHT. (NAIR)...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ... AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS STORM WILL BE A FAST MOVER.

And then in the long term:

A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY THEN HEAD NORTHEAST REMAINING OFFSHORE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE THE STORM INITIAL FORMS AND WHEN. AT THIS TIME...THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. GOT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

There's potential here but, come on, this cold air mass was first alluded to a month ago. One thing ... if the storm does stay offshore...that's a pretty good indication that it will be COLD.

Here's an Accuweather map of the cold:

http://s2.postimage.org/lYOti.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=TslYOti)

* * *

So... we are sitting at the dinner table tonight...and my three year old.... who's name MEANS "snow" in Italian... says....out of nowhere:

"Daddy...you DREAMED that it snowed...but it didn't." Kids. :cry:

EDITED to update stormtrack link. Unfortunately it went farther north and west overnight. Radar looks good this am though.

[Snowballs]

18 chilly degrees here at 6am. that'll make snow.

[Lbtchnlgs]

Flurries in Scotia/Glenville

[Harvey44]

I'm a simple man:

http://s3.postimage.org/1Fg0Tr.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/)

:D :D :D

[Snowballs]

It hasn't rose above 30* today @ elevation of 470 ft. Gore may experience 24hrs+ of sub freezing temp. :D Even the small puddles here aren't frozen tho.....

A substantail " rainfall " event is suppose to pass thru Albany starting late Wednesday afternoon. Maybe nightfall will turn it into elevational snowfall in the 'Dacks. Errant Snurries are being spotted in the region today.

Buffalo got 5-6 inches of snow last night.

[Snowballs]

35* at exit 18, 470 ft elevation. Steady rain. supposed to be a soaker. Pray there's a cold line/elevational snow event at Gore/Face.

Temps, "in Albany" are supposed to rise over night to 60* by noon. Possible record high tomorrow in Albany.

[Spongeworthy]

The current radar does not look good at all :(

[Harvey44]

I'd better get posting, if I don't want that other thread to catch up. :wink:



Pray there's a cold line/elevational snow event at Gore/Face.

Sorry SB but there is no way elevation is going to save us. Temp in NC is 36 now, and 39 at higher elevation in Indian Lake. These will likely be the low temps for the night.



Temps, "in Albany" are supposed to rise over night to 60* by noon. Possible record high tomorrow in Albany.

Records are going to fall all over the NWS Albany CWA - Albany, Glens Falls, Pittsfield, Poughkeepsie.


I saw your post relating to WF opening on Saturday. Any mountain north of Albany that can open with 36 hours of snowmaking from scratch should open on Saturday. Forecast for Gore:

http://s3.postimage.org/1JdEE9.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq1JdEE9)

I won't even get into the fluctuations in the long long now. You guys are too bummed already.

I'm trying to decide what to do. If there is no commitment from Gore in the morning, I may drive to North River and head up to our big sista' mountain. Even if the skiing is crappy, I am so sick of weather blogging. I'd do anything to write an actual TR.

[Lbtchnlgs]

At least this should be the last time we have to question if the mountain is going to open for the season!! :)

If we aren't open this weekend, it's next to impossible that the mountain won't be open with a few runs for the following weekend.

I'll be at Whiteface Sunday

Harv- Theres a free-heel demo Sunday 13 at the Face

[Snowballs]

Harv- Theres a free-heel demo Sunday 13 at the Face

Also, the CS Films movie " Hit Or Miss " will be shown in the Cloudspin Lounge starting around 3ish.

Back to the weather....I have a bloom that opened on one of my Rose bushes today! :shock: Temp topped out at 60ish today. clouds rolled in, now it's 59*

To me, things are looking real shaky for this weekend and even the next few weeks.

[Jon951]

SnowBalls,

You are the second person today indicating their rose bush bloomed. I look forward to reports of frozen pipes and engine block thaws, without damage of course. Perhaps we are experiencing the Jan thaw prematurely, (minimal thaw). Can't be long 'till we're freezin' our "onions" off.

All time recollection of cold in ADK....WFM -52 windchill base temp, -86 windchill mid, and -106 windchill at the top. I remember pulling in the lot ...it was a Sunday morning and the place was a ghost town. The lot atendant flagged me to a stop and uttered, "Good news and bad news. The bad news..open to mid, -52, -86, -106...the good news 10 dollars if you want to attempt it" Needless to say, it was a morning of checking my kids fingers and toes at the mid-station lodge every two runs, but I have to say, I am glad I did not bail. We all left with a feeling of accomplishment, knowing we were able to enjoy the day.

I do not recall hearing what went on a Gore the same day, but I an sure it could not have been far from the same.

[fujative.]

Harv- Theres a free-heel demo Sunday 13 at the Face

Also, the CS Films movie " Hit Or Miss " will be shown in the Cloudspin Lounge starting around 3ish.

Back to the weather....I have a bloom that opened on one of my Rose bushes today! :shock: Temp topped out at 60ish today. clouds rolled in, now it's 59*

To me, things are looking real shaky for this weekend and even the next few weeks.

alt + 248 = °
:wink:

[Snowballs]

Got it! hehehe

[Harvey44]

This weekend thing (http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/nws-noreaster-update.html) has moved closer in. Not far enough but maybe it will continue to move farther.

EDIT: Josh and MRG has been very positive about the upcoming season. More very positive stoke:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2009/12/storm-talk-speculation-let-games-begin.html

[Snowballs]

Ah, a light snow is falling!

[Harvey44]

We got about two inches out of Saturday's snow up here at the cabin.

Actually getting a little light lake effect now.

* * *

Weds storm is bizarre... everyone is starting to call for a Lakes Cutter, but the normally conservative NWS is still going great guns on it.

Forecast for Gore:

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 33. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

The whole damn week has snowflakes on it:

http://s1.postimage.org/eghS0.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=gxeghS0)

* * *

No matter what happens this week is going to be good:

-COLD for snowmaking. Highest High for the week is 33 on Weds.

-LOTS of precip. Even it it isn't all completely frozen...hard to see how the mountains don't come out ahead.

[JC7727]

Harvey, yes this storm on wed looks like a lakes cutter. However, the strong WAA out ahead of it should provide a "thump snow" where I can see gore getting 4-8 inches before going over to a mix and than most likely a dry slot. All in all I am pretty excited for this event, should be a good and heavy wet snow. Good base.

[fujative.]

Hey Harv I see you have me in your snowfall counter :)



I headed down to check out Jamboree. Sunway Chair to the mid-station might be 200 vertical feet. (Anybody know?) I wasn't expecting too much.
According to Google Earth it's 280'

[Harvey44]

Hey Harv I see you have me in your snowfall counter :)


Sunway Chair to the mid-station might be 200 vertical feet. (Anybody know?)

According to Google Earth it's 280'

Fuje ...thanks for the info. I included it in today's blog entry.

Hey for the snowfall counter, I need your elevation. I just guessed 1000 feet because NC is somewhere around 1000.

* * *

OK the weather....

Lionel Hutz is out with his forecast for the upcoming event. It's pretty detailed:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/what-comes-in-the-wake-of-midweek-mess/

Executive Summary: Pretty much every possible type of precip.

This is one of those events I don't get. It LOOKS like it should be all r**n. But every met out there is calling for a significant amount of snow/sleet and frzrn mixed together. At this early stage, anything frozen is a plus. I think we'll end up in the plus zone after it's all done.

I'll tell you one thing ... if you are going to have an El Nino year, THIS is exactly what you want to see:

http://s4.postimage.org/1HFPzS.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1HFPzS)

A serious intrusion of cold that storms coming from the west coast have to go AROUND. "Just hang a left at Cape Hatteras please."

After this event...major cold is going to blow over some VERY WARM lakes. Could be a hug dump on the Tug.

Maybe we'll see some video from Skimore.

[fujative.]

Fuje ...thanks for the info. I included it in today's blog entry.

Hey for the snowfall counter, I need your elevation. I just guessed 1000 feet because NC is somewhere around 1000.

When was it from? Last weekend?
Because that was at Gore when I was riding the Gondi. I'm at 340', we didn't have anything then.

[JC7727]

Harvey, yes this storm on wed looks like a lakes cutter. However, the strong WAA out ahead of it should provide a "thump snow" where I can see gore getting 4-8 inches before going over to a mix and than most likely a dry slot. All in all I am pretty excited for this event, should be a good and heavy wet snow. Good base.

my thoughts remain the same

[Denison]

my bet on this storm is 12"

[fujative.]

I'm guessing 8-9"

[Harvey44]

Let's hear the guesses.

NWS just went from the WW Watch to Warning. Here's she comes.

The questions anyone guessing needs to think about... what elevation are we talking? Gore base (1500')?

And is the question...how much snow will fall... or ....what will be the depth of that snow when the event is over?

Everything I can see put the Adks in a pretty good spot for this one. The 48 hr snowfall map is pretty exciting right now.

Hard to believe that we'd do better than Vt, but that is what models are implying. (Models don't seem to adequately account for No Vt wrap around I think.)

Looks like WF is in the best spot. I think up top they'll get mostly good stuff.

[Lbtchnlgs]

Discussion: This is a particularly difficult storm to forecast snow amounts for due to the expected mixed precipiation nature to the system and the inherent uncertainties in how long each of the precipitation modes, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will last, as well as an expectation that local terrain will play a big role the distribution and amounts. Therefore, forecast error will be higher than typical with this system..
.
With that said a period of moderate to heavy snow is likely to occur in most if not all areas for at least a couple of hours leaving enough snow to shovel and plow in most locations. Terrain enhancement with a strong SE flow is likely along the eastern slopes of the Catskills as well as in the higher elevations (1000' and up) in Berkshire and Bennington counties where I'm indicating as much as 5"-9", especially at elevation in these areas..
.
Cold air will last longer in the Adirondacks, along with strong upslope flow which should lead to a high end moderate snowfall of 5"-9" there as well.
.
Terrain shadowing is likely in portion of the upper Hudson valley, to Bennington, VT and the lower elevations in NW Berkshire County where amounts will likely be less, on the order of 2"-4"..
.
Another area to watch for potential elevated snow amounts in a pattern where strong SE flow is occurring, is in the Lake George/Saratoga region where past patterns suggest, if the cold air can hang on long enough, upslope flow will cause enhanced snow accumulations. Discussion: This is a particularly difficult storm to forecast snow amounts for due to the expected mixed precipiation nature to the system and the inherent uncertainties in how long each of the precipitation modes, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will last, as well as an expectation that local terrain will play a big role the distribution and amounts. Therefore, forecast error will be higher than typical with this system..
.
With that said a period of moderate to heavy snow is likely to occur in most if not all areas for at least a couple of hours leaving enough snow to shovel and plow in most locations. Terrain enhancement with a strong SE flow is likely along the eastern slopes of the Catskills as well as in the higher elevations (1000' and up) in Berkshire and Bennington counties where I'm indicating as much as 5"-9", especially at elevation in these areas..
.
Cold air will last longer in the Adirondacks, along with strong upslope flow which should lead to a high end moderate snowfall of 5"-9" there as well.
.
Terrain shadowing is likely in portion of the upper Hudson valley, to Bennington, VT and the lower elevations in NW Berkshire County where amounts will likely be less, on the order of 2"-4"..
.
Another area to watch for potential elevated snow amounts in a pattern where strong SE flow is occurring, is in the Lake George/Saratoga region where past patterns suggest, if the cold air can hang on long enough, upslope flow will cause enhanced snow accumulations.

http://s3.postimage.org/1_RZ10.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq1_RZ10)

Can't decide to skip classes tomorrow and head up. There's going to be snow of course, but I don't wanna miss classes right before finals and get up there to get rained on and have to see a pow day go kaput.

[Snowballs]

I'ld shoot for Thursday/Friday. Tomorrow doesn't look like a good day to drive. This storm has dumped 3-4 ft. in parts of the country. I'm gonna fantasize that it lingers over the Great Lakes and the Dacks and pukes 4 ft!

A couple things in Lbtchnlgs' post sound good and raise red flags........cold air lasting longer in the Dacks, Lake George area upslope flow will cause enhanced accumulations.....

Maybe this thing will drag it's feet as it comes thru. It's passing over the warm waters of the Great Lakes. It could pick up a lot of moisture.

[Harvey44]

Discussion: This is a particularly difficult storm to forecast snow amounts for due to the expected mixed precipiation nature to the system and the inherent uncertainties in how long each of the precipitation modes, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will last, as well as an expectation that local terrain will play a big role the distribution and amounts. Therefore, forecast error will be higher than typical with this system..
.
With that said a period of moderate to heavy snow is likely to occur in most if not all areas for at least a couple of hours leaving enough snow to shovel and plow in most locations. Terrain enhancement with a strong SE flow is likely along the eastern slopes of the Catskills as well as in the higher elevations (1000' and up) in Berkshire and Bennington counties where I'm indicating as much as 5"-9", especially at elevation in these areas..
.
Cold air will last longer in the Adirondacks, along with strong upslope flow which should lead to a high end moderate snowfall of 5"-9" there as well.
.
Terrain shadowing is likely in portion of the upper Hudson valley, to Bennington, VT and the lower elevations in NW Berkshire County where amounts will likely be less, on the order of 2"-4"..
.
Another area to watch for potential elevated snow amounts in a pattern where strong SE flow is occurring, is in the Lake George/Saratoga region where past patterns suggest, if the cold air can hang on long enough, upslope flow will cause enhanced snow accumulations. Discussion: This is a particularly difficult storm to forecast snow amounts for due to the expected mixed precipiation nature to the system and the inherent uncertainties in how long each of the precipitation modes, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will last, as well as an expectation that local terrain will play a big role the distribution and amounts. Therefore, forecast error will be higher than typical with this system..
.
With that said a period of moderate to heavy snow is likely to occur in most if not all areas for at least a couple of hours leaving enough snow to shovel and plow in most locations. Terrain enhancement with a strong SE flow is likely along the eastern slopes of the Catskills as well as in the higher elevations (1000' and up) in Berkshire and Bennington counties where I'm indicating as much as 5"-9", especially at elevation in these areas..
.
Cold air will last longer in the Adirondacks, along with strong upslope flow which should lead to a high end moderate snowfall of 5"-9" there as well.
.
Terrain shadowing is likely in portion of the upper Hudson valley, to Bennington, VT and the lower elevations in NW Berkshire County where amounts will likely be less, on the order of 2"-4"..
.
Another area to watch for potential elevated snow amounts in a pattern where strong SE flow is occurring, is in the Lake George/Saratoga region where past patterns suggest, if the cold air can hang on long enough, upslope flow will cause enhanced snow accumulations.

http://s3.postimage.org/1_RZ10.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq1_RZ10)

DUDE. You have been holding out on me.

[SIAWOL]

Storm appears legit. Called for 1-3" overnight and we have about 6" as of 730am--in Fulton County--and still coming down pretty steady. It's light, crystalline snow-not very wet at all. Which is actually bad news---it's going to blow like a mother rather than stick to the slopes.

[Harvey44]

Everything I can see put the Adks in a pretty good spot for this one. The 48 hr snowfall map is pretty exciting right now.

Hard to believe that we'd do better than Vt, but that is what models are implying.

NWS seems to be sticking to the idea that Gore is in a very good spot for this storm. The terminology on the revised Winter Storm Warning says "SHOULD" included mixed precip in the afternoon. This is why I like using Albany for Gore vs Burlington. Gore is probably in one of the coldest spots in the entire NWS Albany CWA. Oddly BTV is showing more mixed at WF than at Gore.

Here's a screen cap for 4PM today which seems to be the pinnacle of the transition:

http://s4.postimage.org/1LoQVS.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=aV1LoQVS)

This storm, at this time of year, is looking pretty darn good. Temps in North Creek are in the low 20s.

It must be absolutely PUKING on the mountain. Can't wait to get some check in from the locals.

I miss Megatron. He was always up early and posting during a big event.

[adkskier]

4-5" on the ground this morning and continuing to fall steadily at 23 degrees in the shadow of the mountain (i.e. very nearby). It's a fine, light snow. The froecast still calls for it to change over to include some sleet and then high winds. fingers crossed that we avoid the sleet and keep it all snow.

[MidnightCarving]

winter called; shes on her way.

woke up to 3-4 on the ground here in oswego; hoping it heads your way.

[Snowballs]

Still snowing good here, 8 inches or so, 23* at 470 ft.

the road needs plowed. think i'll take my Quad and rip the sub developement before the plow comes thru.

[Danzilla]

A little (and I a mean a little) sleet/freezing rain might not be such a bad thing at this point in the season with high winds expected as the system passes through. It might hold down everything that falls and prevent it from getting blown into the trees. Hopefully Friday will provide some icing on the cake. C

an't wait to get up there this weekend. I got a "new" lightly used Ride Mountain board from a buddy of mine and just mounted a new pair of K2 one step bindings.

[Harvey44]

A little (and I a mean a little) sleet/freezing rain might not be such a bad thing

Pretty likely that we'll get that.


It might hold down everything that falls and prevent it from getting blown into the trees.

I'm ok with some of it ending up in the trees :)

What a week a difference makes.

[JC7727]

we should go from snow to just dry slot, not expecting much sleet or freezing rain

[Danzilla]

I'm ok with some of it ending up in the trees :)


You are right Harv - I completely forgot about the tree people.

Reminds me of an old college toast. Goes something like....

"Here's to the wind that blows through the trees's and lifts the skirts above the knees's....."

Buy me a beer in the Tannery and I'll tell you the rest :twisted:

[adkskier]

About 7" in North Creek and seems to be tapering off a bit with the temp warming.

[Snowballs]

About 7" in North Creek and seems to be tapering off a bit with the temp warming.

We got 12 inches of heavier, wettish snow here at Exit 18, adjacent to West Mtn. Snow stopped about noon. Wind won't blow this snow.

27* no precip.

[Denison]

my bet on this storm is 12"


Wow we just recived a foot of frsh powder and are making more and more!

Bingo!

[Harvey44]

A Cheeseburger for Denison. (!)

Folks what we saw today was a little bit of Gore magic. More on that later.

Now if we can get our hands on some of tomorrow's Lake Effect that would be sweet.

Looks like the LE band will be a big juicy one.

NWS is calling for it to start headed ENE from Ontario ... but then to wander south into central Herkimer and Hamilton.

In general Gore's not prime for lake effect, but if ever there was a time now might be it.

[Lbtchnlgs]

MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT SETTING UP FOR COMMUNITIES IN NORTHERN HERKIMER AND THROUGHOUT HAMILTON COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
.
The strong flow of very cold air coming across the warm waters of lake Ontario will set the stage for massive snow accumulations in the Lake Ontario snow belts through Saturday. Initially on Thursday, there is expected to be enough of a southwest component to the wind to keep much of the snow out of Herkimer and Hamilton counties. However, the flow will become more westerly and eventually northwesterly through Saturday allowing major lake effect snow bands to migrate through the Adirondacks likely leaving up to THREE FEET OF SNOW in some areas, especially those areas closer to the lake. Lake effect snow showers of lesser intensity will also impact the Mohawk valley and Catskills and much of the remainder of the region, Friday through Saturday, from time to time.

:shock: :shock: :shock: Dusting off the split board :D




http://s2.postimage.org/LLwQA.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=TsLLwQA)

[Snowballs]

The Tug Hill Platteau is forecasted to get 2-3 feet, possibly more, of lake effect snow thru Saturday. Gore 4-6 inches.

[fujative.]

The Tug Hill Platteau is forecasted to get 2-3 feet, possibly more, of lake effect snow thru Saturday. Gore 4-6 inches.
I'm seeing 6"-12"

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=43.695679697898825&lon=-74.02862548828125&site=aly&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en

[Snowballs]

The Tug Hill Platteau is forecasted to get 2-3 feet, possibly more, of lake effect snow thru Saturday. Gore 4-6 inches.
I'm seeing 6"-12"

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=43.695679697898825&lon=-74.02862548828125&site=aly&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en

Let's go with that!

[Denison]

Love the Hazardous Weather Outlook:



Overnight: Snow showers. Low around 16. Breezy, with a west wind between 17 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday: Snow showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as zero. West wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Friday Night: Scattered snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -6. West wind between 14 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible


Prediction: on Saturday, "New Snow Last 7 days" will be over 30" (it's 17 at the moment)

[Harvey44]

Mad River is opening tomorrow. Which is a really good sign.

Check out Josh Fox's entry from today. He's hyping a December to remember:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2009/12/pattern-delivers-early-mrg-opening.html

Here's a little Accuweather Porn:

http://s3.postimage.org/4QSGr.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pq4QSGr)

I'm pumped. A huge meeting I had on Monday got postponed and I'm skiing Sunday and Monday. :D

[Harvey44]

http://s3.postimage.org/eL0jr.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=PqeL0jr)

[mattchuck2]

Alright Harv, I saw your blog . . . What's the deal for this weekend?

[Harvey44]

From what I can tell, this thing is going to be too far south for Gore this weekend. There is such a thing as too cold to snow. The dome of cold is pushing this one south.

This upcoming weekend is usually one of the best, as everyone is out shopping. And now ... the summit snowmaking gear is back in action so ChatieHawk and whatever else up top should be killer. It never got to ten degrees today, and was probably colder than a basonuvabitch on the hill. Plus they are running the adk express.

Somebody post some pictures this weekend. Send me an really good exclusive one and I'll put your name in lights. (My cookie budget is getting depleted). :D

Unfortunately I can't be at Gore this weekend. I was roped into a "crucial ballet recital" for Monday. (I would postulate that there is no such THING as a crucial ballet recital.)

This surely isn't going to help my yellow plated reputation, so I probably shouldn't admit it. I may hit Hunta on Sunday with Jamesdeluxe and Jason the Weatherman.

One thing to note ... there are signs that Christmas might really deliver. Maybe that's what Snowballs was referring to in that other thread.

Sorry for the massive thread drift.

EDIT: MattyR just checked in on Harvey Road with a comment. He knows how to read models better than I do. Looks like I may have been wrong....storm is drifting NORTH.

[Snowballs]

yeah, one of our local tv weather dudes says he's not so sure the storm won't hit us. Said he suspects the others may be wrong. Not sure where your hearing the summit guns are going.....i'm going up tomorrow for a cold one....will report back to what's going on. i wouldn't want PDQ to get all ornery on me.

[Snowballs]

Alright, i woosed. it was PDC this am.....pretty damn cold.

[Harvey44]

Just had a convo with Jason my weather guy. Our relationship is new so we've got some communication issues to work out. He needs to understand that I don't give a flying fred about a big storm downstate. And I need to be a better listener.

In fairness, Jason did tell me he gets JAZZED about snow at his house in the lower Hudson Valley. To me, snow in the flatlands is just a pain in my posterior. So his input yesterday was based on what he's hoping to see downstate. I'll try to maintain my composure a little better in the future. :roll:

Ok...some decorum... and some weather.

MattyR's input is still looking pretty good. The storm is still creeping north. The winter storm watch now has been extended northward into Orange County NY. That's another 75 miles north of where it was last night. Still not sure it will migrate far enough north to help us at Gore.

But remember .... in the east .... a lot of ingredients have to be in place for a storm to dump on a specific location. You need the right amount of cold air in place to produce the perfect storm track. Too much cold.. the storm will track out to sea. Not enough ... and you get a lake cutter. Not good.

The good news is that if a storm is going to miss the mark...MUCH rather have it go out to sea than run through the Great Lakes. I'd much rather have it be 5 below zero and the storm out to sea (with snoguns roaring!) than some lame lake cutter ruining our progress.

[x10003q]

Some of the latest modeling is showing the storm drifting inland. So far the snow cut off in some of the models is Scraton to the western Catskills to Albany. The storm has the potential to hammer WashDC to Boston. So far Gore remains out of range.

[Snowballs]

Come on Mother Nature........


Harv, what about that Guy who has the unique understanding of New England micro climates......Hearing anything from him?

[Harvey44]

I have never seen Accuweather publish a map like this a full week out. These guys have LOST their mind.

Still ... in my role as Hypemeister Junior (Henry M at AccuW is the Senior), I'm posting this super porn:

http://s3.postimage.org/oLBwJ.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=PqoLBwJ)

EDIT: Just saw your post SB....nothing from Powderfreak yet on FIS. He mostly gets excited about No VT so this one is far from him. It's a little early for him to post on the Xmas thing. He is also active SkiVt and EasternWx and I haven't checked there. I'd better do some work (what a concept) or I'll be in some hot water.

[x10003q]

I have never seen Accuweather publish a map like this a full week out. These guys have LOST their mind.

Still ... in my role as Hypemeister Junior (Henry M at AccuW is the Senior), I'm posting this super porn:

http://s3.postimage.org/oLBwJ.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=PqoLBwJ)

EDIT: Just saw your post SB....nothing from Powderfreak yet on FIS. He mostly gets excited about No VT so this one is far from him. It's a little early for him to post on the Xmas thing. He is also active SkiVt and EasternWx and I haven't checked there. I'd better do some work (what a concept) or I'll be in some hot water.

I saw that map too. I would just ignore it for now. They are in full snow wish mode out at State College.

[Lbtchnlgs]

They gotta stoke as many people up for a white christmas as they can, we'll see 1-3"

[Lbtchnlgs]

http://www.accuweather.com/us/ny/north-creek/12853/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipchg=1&metric=0

I know its long term, I know it's accuweather. But check out the weather pattern starting Dec. 31

[nyspnypd]

Accuweather is saying this is going to be a more Ice storm with some snow and sleet and even plain rain mixing in. :(

[Harvey44]

Guys and girls....

I posted my two cents over on the Whiteface side, with two pages of disclaimers.

Look at the map below. It's a dynamic link so it will change with time.

At the time of this posting it shows a storm wandering across Texas and seemingly losing it's motivation in the upper midwest. THAT I just don't get. It also shows a coastal low forming on Saturday. That low should take some energy from the storm in the upper midwest.

What I do know is that the stronger that coastal low, the more frozen this event will be. This is double edged sword. If the coastal is weak, we'll be wet. If it somehow gets really strong, we could endup as snow/sleet - which would be great at this point. (Truth be told I'd like to see the coastal STRONG and slightly farther off the coast.)

Somewhere between weak and strong .. that low could create REAL trouble. The dreaded frz r**n.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif

Like I said in the other thread, local reports greatly appreciated.

Merry Christmas Gore Mountain.

[Denison]

Government forecasts "Wintry Mix" with high of 32 in North Creek. Mountain should be file , lets hope.

[Snowballs]

Interesting. ADK Global warming measurements. Not all of the ADKs got warmer.



http://www.poststar.com/news/local/article_178c8d5e-f03b-11de-9350-001cc4c03286.html

[Snowballs]

All right, which one of us didn't leave Santa some cookies? Nothing but crappy weather here for 2 days, exit 18. Freezing rain friday night. Warm with light drizzle Saturday. Today, I got up at 6am to go skiing and a good, steady rain was falling, probably fell all night. It's still raining now. I didn't realize Santa was so touchy. Next year, I'm leaving him a whole cheesecake, homemade.

[Snowballs]

this is better.

http://www.poststar.com/news/local/article_d498c3ce-f2e1-11de-9990-001cc4c03286.html

the Big Guy must like cheesecake.

[MidnightCarving]

lol, cheesecake it is, was going to go up this morning but same, rain all over, about 40 all day long...

but, snowballs you are correct, there is time for redemption. i put a cheesecake out in the rain today and the report is now looking favorable from the weather channel.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS IN NEW YORK AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN VERMONT.

A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT... BECOMING HEAVIER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT... BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON TUESDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF ON TUESDAY MORNING... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

[Snowballs]

i put a cheesecake out in the rain today and the report is now looking favorable from the weather channel.

Way to go MidnightCarving!!! :lol:

Cheesecakes rule.....cookies drool.

Elfs...they're a little flakey.

[Harvey44]

Guys/gals...

I'm getting psyched. First .... I finally figured out how to embed a national radar loop into Harvey Road. If you've been to HR you've seen the NY State Radar in the upper righthand corner. Somtimes that's not enough. You want to see what's coming from the upper midwest.

I won't always have it front and center. Sometimes it will be down near the bottom of the page. When it is front and center, it means I think somethings comin and the BIG PICTURE is important.

OK... on to serious business. Tonight's frontal passage or clipper or whatever they are calling it has potential. They are giving it a wide range like calling for 4 to 10" as MC posted. They're calling it "synoptic" with some lake enhancement. It's a funny use of the word, but it basically means it's a true LOW or a trough, not just cold air blowing over a warm lake. Don't get me wrong - lake effect is very cool - but it doesn't do much for Gore, which is in a shadow. But I digress.

If we score even the low end of that range, say 3 - 4 inches, and the groomers can munch that up before the wind gets to it ...it should make a BIG difference in groomer surface quality. Or ... if some, or all of it, blows into the trees - many of us can live with that too. The question there will be when do the groomers get out and when does the wind pic up Monday night.

Next order of business is this THING that is out there. Friday and Saturday looks like the timing now. I'm not going to really analyze it yet.

But it's encouraging that in the last 12 hours, the NWS in Albany has become much more convinced that something significant is going to happen. Those guys are pretty conservative.

We actually changed plans ... I'm here in downtown MASH and working tomorrow, so I can take Monday (1/4) off.

May the force, and the cheesecake, be with us.

[Snowballs]

Right on Brother!

[MidnightCarving]

nice.
will be reporting totals tomorrow night before bed and tues morning.

[mattchuck2]

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Xzcyk769cbc/SzlesFZ2jgI/AAAAAAAAACU/b7C4X4rvV0k/s640/NYEveNYDEast.jpg

[Snowballs]

Fwiw, local TV weathermen are calling this Thursday-Saturday snow a " Significant " event. It was a year ago that we had that Nirvana snow......'member? Of course you do.

[Harvey44]

As of 5pm today, Accuweather is still sticking with the map Matt posted above.

Everything else I'm reading indicates an increased likelyhood that this thing will move too far east to hammer Gore. More like a NH/Maine thing with No VT getting it's usually killer wrap around.

UNDERSTAND ... to me it seems like we've now got a 50/50 shot at a big one, whereas this morning it seemed more like 70/30.

I'm still hopeful for something epic, and pretty confident of a decent snowfall even if it's not epic.

Got to sack and get on the road tomorrow am for North River.

Maybe have some coffee with that cheesecake to boost the octane.

[Snowballs]

yuck yuck yuck!

[MidnightCarving]

F it, i'm putting out a whole buffet table with every dessert i can think of.

Cheesecake, Layer Cake, Wedding Cake, Pineapple upside down cake, Pies, Cookies, Complete ice cream selection with toppings and hot fudge to seal the deal.

we need this to happen, plus, i've got a friend coming up, supposed to leave saturday AM, but hopefully we end up skiing sat AM instead.

[Harvey44]

First things first .... for my MegaHarv totals. Gore called the snowfall from Monday 5 inches. I had six inches here (2000') ABOVE the crust and it's had two days to settle. Garnet Hill Lodge called Monday's event 7 inches. How much did we get?

From what I'm seeing on the ground here ... I think another 5 inches would put more tree skiing in play if only for a few days.

* * *

OK the weather. Pretty much general agreement that the coastal storm is going to be too far east to really pound us. Looks like Maine is the place to be this weekend.

Accuweather is the outlier, they still have us getting significant snowfall. I can't find anyone else who agrees with that.

Still. When we stopped at the Clifton Park rest area to let our women folk use the facilities, NWS had the word "light snow" across the next 4 days for Gore/WF. Since then they have removed the work "light" and are just using "snow." Best probability is 70% for Friday night.

Still could change. I must say it's convenient to have TWO storms headed our way - one in the upper midwest, and one in the south. Something's got to hit us. From the reports I've read, even six inches would really matter.

Did anyone check out the FIS update? I'll tell you one thing - those guys REALLY are providing a service. FIS Forecast update here:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/

It's great to be back in town!

[Spongeworthy]

The live weather forecasts from Channels 10 and 13 say to expect a good amount of snow (Kovachik said "heavy") thru Sunday morning in the higher elevations north of Albany in the ADKs and Green Mts because of a high in Greenland that will keep the snow stuck and circling back around counterclockwise (or something like that).

Nobody can be wrong more often -- and still keep their jobs -- than the local meteorologists . . . but still! :D

[Harvey44]

Check out the storm track map ... this storm is "retrograding." Basically going past us and then coming back. Pretty dramatic...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif

[x10003q]

The Perfect Storm of Oct/Nov, 1991 did a retrograde. It looks like Maine will get dumped on.

[twinplanx]

Seriously, what does it take to update this ...it's snowing on Long Island, how's it filling in over there?

[Denison]

Seriously, what does it take to update this ...it's snowing on Long Island, how's it filling in over there?

Weather.gov promised 1-2" last night and up to 2" today - got nothing so far :evil:

[Snowballs]

Seriously, what does it take to update this ...it's snowing on Long Island, how's it filling in over there?

1-2 inches by 11 am today at exit 18. hasn't snowed since.

I was at Hickory today, a mere 18 miles from my house and it looked like they got nothing new last night.

It not currently snowing.

Local weather just said a potental 8-12 inches by Sunday night. Windy.

[Raymo40]

:D Lets hope they are right on this one. We need more snow.

[Harvey44]

After the ugly:

http://s3.postimage.org/bns9.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=Pqbns9)

Let's hope Gore cranks up the snowmaking after this horrible warm up. Thanks for the map.

[Frostillicus]

Yuck. It's going to take a while to recover from this one...

[adkskier]

It absolutely poured in North Creek today and the winds were reported to be howling on the mountain. One worker reported that the mountain was really looking ugly. Lots of dirt showing through. The gondola was rocking and rolling in the wind. It's going to be a difficult recovery.

[SnowSnake]

Anyone know how much of the snow pack was lost with this rain? Any idea if there is anything left in the woods?

[Harvey44]

Hey it's a long shot, but it's all I got:

http://www.nyskiblog.com/p/ny-weather.html

[Lbtchnlgs]

Harv, I may be pointing a finger at you for starting a weather thread so (too) early.

[Harvey44]

It take the full wrap if it will help. I remember when I posted that. It was soo cold down here I couldn't help it!

If you take a look at the TR we posted on Belleayre, you'll see that it's hammer Harv week. That'll give somebody a chuckle I'm sure.

Matty pointed me to a weather thread in EasternWx, where the NY state weather weenies are blowing off this weekends event all together, but getting excited about potential early next week.

Something's gotta give!

[x10003q]

Somebody on this board bought a snowblower. Now fess up. :D The last time I bought a snowblower it didn't snow for 2 years.

[Jackalope]

Maybe we should all put our summer tires back on. :)

[Harvey44]

All those are great ideas that need to be implemented ASAP.

Yesterday we got a PM at Harvey Road.

"During the summer I can hang my clothes on the line and, with no more than a 20% chance of precipitation, can make it r**n. Last night, in 19 degree weather, I hung my clothes out to dry on the line, thinking that if it works in the summer, maybe it will also work in the winter. I got most of them out before loosing the ability to work the clothes pins and before the clothes in the basket froze."

Lots of creative thinking going on out there.

[adksara]

... we didn't buy a snowblower, but the dear husband did buy some new grooming/snowmobile equipment for the year :oops:

I'm going to start wearing flip flops... and put my skis outside where they can think about all the non-snow that's out there, kind of like being in a penalty box for hockey players!

[Jeff]

did buy some new grooming/snowmobile equipment
So, YOU"RE the one resposible for this!!... :evil:

(just kidding)

[fujative.]

Maybe we should all put our summer tires back on. :)

The last snow we got more than 2" is the day I got my snow tires. It may be my fault :?

[HudsonHiker]

Sara used to tell her 4th and 5th graders to wear their pajamas inside out and backwards to wish for a snow day from school. Maybe we're up to that seems like we need all the snow dance helpers we can get. There's 4 inches of frozen granular on thebackyard snow stick here in West Glens Falls. I miss the evening X/C jaunts too. I used to say wait til next month. Lately that's not been such a good saying either.

[Denison]

I don't know why the sacrifice didn't work. The science was so solid.

[rossi]

2 or 3 weeks ago I predicted an epic snow storm for today. Predicted as in just guessed. Haha. From what I heard that epic storm dumped 1-2ft on washington Dc. I was right, just lacked location.

[Harvey44]

I don't know why the sacrifice didn't work. The science was so solid.

Comedy. Source?

* * *

I've never seen anything like this. I sent a note to a North River local today, asking about the woods ... his response "heard the BC in NJ was good. I'm on my way."

* * *

Trying to catch up on stuff and even planned on doing Valentine's Day Dinner THIS weekend to leave myself open for potential next week. Even that is freakin shut down by the southern storm track. We're supposed to get a dump. Don't even have skis down here.

* * *

Mountain recorded 2 inches of snow today. I didn't see it on the radar.

Was anyone up today?

I realize it doesn't matter much, but I'm trying to keep track.

[Danzilla]

Harv - you could always go to vernon valley on saturday and rent:).

[TomCat]

We need the snow Train parked in NJ, then it can haul all the snow up to North Creek. 100 open coal cars should do it.

BTW, did everyone see that Gore is making snow in central park, NYC this week?!

tom

[Snowballs]

We need the snow Train parked in NJ, then it can haul all the snow up to North Creek. 100 open coal cars should do it.

Hehehehe. It is unreal you guys are facing 1-2 ft of snow and we're getting zip again. I did have a 3 inch snowfall Wed and Gore look like it received the same - if anybody is counting.


BTW, did everyone see that Gore is making snow in central park, NYC this week?!

tom

Yea I saw that and noted the strong irony.

Even tho it's been a disaster kinda year, the Central Park thing doesn't bother me. They're just trying to get some much needed business. In that light, it's a good idea. Plus People will have a good time.The NYC Parks Commission is likely kickin in cash for the event.

[TomCat]

I agree that it's a good idea to make snow in NYC to drum up business. I just thought it's a bit ironic that we're shipping snow guns down south just before a big storm.

tom

[Danzilla]

I find it interesting that I just received an email about the event YESTERDAY and that I didn't see it on the Gore site until yesterday either. I told a bunch of NYC people about it but they already have other things going on this weekend.

Just thinking a little more advanced promotion may have been warranted.

[Harvey44]

I just need to adjust my attitude. Tomorrow will be fun.

Should snow quite a bit and I'm sure our three year old will love it. With that last big snow, we built a killer igloo that lasted a long time.

Leaving the skis in North River is a calculated risk. Especially the cross country skis.

By doing it we can bag the roof box.

The CRV gets 27-28 mpg without it and more like 22 with the box on top.

But we do get caught down here at times wishes we had our skinny skis.

Blah blah blah.

Here's something I just posted. NWS is throwing us a scrap, that I'm hoping will turn into a bone:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/12/nws-update-excerpts.html

[Harvey44]

Boy you KNOW it's tough out there when even Sara is cranky. :D

But there is an undercurrent of excitement building in the weather forums.

Early this season I SWORE off using Accuweather images that hype events.

But I just can't help it. Please forgive me:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2010/02/accuweather.html

[Harvey44]

This mornings Forecast Discussion from NWS in ALY is a little humorous.

If there was ever ANY doubt that the NWS weather nerds LIVE for bigtime winter events you should read this mornings discussion.

Focus on the long term part:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

or read the juicy part here:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/12/nws-update-excerpts.html

I have a feeling I'm going to be posting a lot over the next few days.

Oh yea ... we are working on a deal to bring a REAL weather guy on board at Harvey Road. I'm hoping that we can get his contract finalized in time for this event. Apparently there is some stickiness over Saddle Lodge Cheeseburger issues, but I'm confident we can get those worked out.

[Harvey44]

Since I made the previous post, the storm has been slipping ever southward.

Last set of model runs indicate a reversal on that trend.

Hoping to get an more informed opinion later today.

Think positive.

[Harvey44]

Here's your storm track. (This link will update so if you look back at this in the future the follow info won't make sense.)

The current map shows that coastal low maybe 50-75 miles southeast of the tip of Long Island. That tip of Long Island is the IDEAL location for a storm track if you want to maximize snow in ALBANY. The NWS boys in ALY call the tip of LI the "Benchmark." The point of snow maximization.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif

You can be sure I'll be watching this feed (it's on HR down and to the right) over the next 36 hrs.

[Harvey44]

http://s4.postimage.org/47lG0.png (http://www.postimage.org/)

[adksara]

Just walked through 2" of snow with a happy dog & the baby in the backpack cracking up at the white stuff falling all around. Hopefully it'll keep going a bit to freshen up everything, we were only forecast for 1-3" so I'm hoping. The NWS guys have pushed it up for us a little.

By the way Harvey... just 'cause I get a bit cranky with no snow doesn't mean you have to call me on it! :lol:

[JC7727]

storm missed the north country again, gore looks to have received very little. Got hit good again down around NYC

[Jeff]

Sara, is that 2" in GF or NC?

[adksara]

2" in GF as of 4 p.m. and 'ish the same up at the in-laws in Johnsburg.

I'll be calling them tonight to say hello so I'll check and see what they've got as well. Will post later.

[adkskier]

Not even 1/4" in North Creek. We got light flurries and the pavement is bare. 1.5" reported in Glens Falls as the storm moves east at this hour. Nothing falling now.

[Spongeworthy]

Not even 1/4" in North Creek.According to the Gore web site, the mountain got FOUR TIMES AS MUCH!!!!

[adkskier]

So after adjusting for "marketing optimism" that means they got less than 1/4". And...reliable sources report that Gore will begin to lay off snow makers next week as is traditionally done. Snow making after this week will be the usual patch and dash.

[Snowballs]

Not even 1/4" in North Creek. We got light flurries and the pavement is bare. 1.5" reported in Glens Falls as the storm moves east at this hour. Nothing falling now.

Yep. Was there all day. Hardly any snow fell until after 2 pm. B A R E L Y a dusting by 4ish. Roads bare down to Warrensburg. Radar shows it's very quickly leaving the area now. Roughly an 1.5" here at exit 18. Weatherman suck.

Light crowd today.

[adksara]

Gore will begin to lay off snow makers next week as is traditionally done. Snow making after this week will be the usual patch and dash.

I heard that too... it's just sad that with this weather there seems to be a bit too much to "patch" & they've been "dashing" around too much as it is.

I'm just keeping all fingers crossed for a good snowy March. (Although I did see robins around town not that long ago & a stinkin' chipmunk ran across the deck & down to the river today.)

[JC7727]

yup, like I said this storm once again missed to the South and East

[Danzilla]

Got home today to another 6-8 inches of good heavy basemaker snow. Add that to the 10 or so inches from last week and we would be talking a nice addition to the base.

Too bad I live in North Jersey (goes without saying).

On another note we rode WF on Saturday and Sunday and they had good coverage up there. Skied off by the afternoon, but the mornings were awesome. Saturday morning was cold, clear and no wind.

[Harvey44]

Hey anythings possible:

http://s1.postimage.org/EQK9S.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=gxEQK9S)

[Danzilla]

I am headed to Utah for the weekend. While I am there I will try to get a snow god drunk and shangai him to North Creek for next weekend:)

[adksara]

I am headed to Utah for the weekend. While I am there I will try to get a snow god drunk and shangai him to North Creek for next weekend:)

NICE!!! Now that's a plan. :lol:

[Frostillicus]

After this last "storm" I am thoroughly convinced that Gore caused some kind of Bad Karma/Juju with their Gold Parking, Lack of Snowmaking, Bad Facebook PR, etc. that is leading to this horrible snow drought. Don't give me any of that meteorology/science mumbo jumbo either. (I'm looking at you Harvey).

[Snowballs]

hehehe. " Juju ".

I think I used to date her. Yep. Pretty sure I use to pick her up and we'ld go parking in my karma.

[JC7727]

thinking of going to Utah in march, looks like they are getting screwed this winter also. Much below normal snow.

[Frostillicus]

Anyone hear anything about a wind hold on the lifts today?

[JC7727]

everything was open by 10am, mix of good snow and wind blown trails today

[Harvey44]

When NWS is showing 60% probabilities of snow at 72 and 96 hours out, it's a good sign:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=43.678797753207235&lon=-74.0423583984375&site=aly&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en

GFS (http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2010/02/storm-potential.html) for end of next week looks pretty good too.

I think Matty is right. Statistically SOMETHING has to go our way this year.

[Harvey44]

http://s2.postimage.org/S5nMS.jpg (http://www.postimage.org/image.php?v=TsS5nMS)

http://nyskiblog.com/2010/02/jasons-weather-update-week-of-feb-22.html

[adksara]

Snow... please, please, please, please, please, please :lol:

We'll see. At the moment higher elevations are looking good!

[Denison]

mountain did look good this weekend despite (no)luck we had with snow.

I made a sacrifice to snow gods and it paid off:

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2010/400x266_02221629_newest.jpg

[Spongeworthy]

I like this forecast :D :

Here is your Storm Tracker forecast prepared by NEWS 10 Meteorologist Steve Caporizzo

GET READY FOR THE BUSIEST WEATHER WEEK OF THE WINTER !

Get ready for a VERY complex weather pattern over the next 4-5 days. This is the best chance at a significant snowstorm that we have had for the entire winter.

A weak system will track south of us late tonight into Tuesday. This will produce some light snow mixed with rain in the valleys. WE expect about an inch of slushy snow for the morning commute..... As for total accumulations by 5pm Tuesday, 1"-2" will fall through Tuesday afternoon for the valleys and 2"-4" for the hill towns and mountains over 1,000 feet of elevation. This is NOT the main event.

Tuesday night a storm intensifies along the Mid Atlantic Coast. Snow will become heavier Tuesday evening. Any mix in the valleys will chance to all snow. The snow will be heavy through at least Wednesday mid day. We expect significant travel problems for work and school Wednesday Morning. As for accumulations from this main storm, we expect most areas in the valley 5"-8"……with 8"-12" for the high elevations around the Capital Region. This includes the Berkshires/Hill towns/Catskills/Southern Adirondacks.

This is not the last storm…another significant storm will produce another round of heavy snow on Thursday…we will keep you updated. This last storm if it stalls will impact our weather for over 48 hours!

[fujative.]

thinking of going to Utah in march, looks like they are getting screwed this winter also. Much below normal snow.
I'll be in Tahoe March 7th - 13th!

First time going out west.. pretty stoked.

[Frostillicus]

Well I'm about ready to mow my lawn and play bocce ball. This storm is going to miss us by a mile.

[Snowballs]

Hehehe. ^^^^

Be positive. Bocci is supposedly alot of fun and it just started snowing. 30 degrees.

[jimmer]

Well I'm about ready to mow my lawn and play bocce ball. This storm is going to miss us by a mile.hey j finaly got too ski with ur dad,the skiing was great,,

[Frostillicus]

Jimmer- You should be out there today ya bum! I bet yesterday was awesome. I had to work (BOO!).

and Snowballs, to help your sarcasm detector; [saracsm]I HOPE IT RAINS![/sarcasm]

[Snowballs]

I HOPE IT RAINS![/sarcasm]

?

.....Snowing pretty good now. So far just melting on the roads and my deck,etc. Prolly accumulating on the snow cover. Local TV weather is saying 10" - 15" inches for Gore thru Wed. night.

[Denison]

latest snow forecast looking even better:

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/iws1_430.jpg

[Frostillicus]

I am aware that it's snowing. I just don't want to jinx it. :o

[Snowballs]

I am aware that it's snowing. I just don't want to jinx it. :o

That part wasn't directed at you. This is the weather thread. People post on the weather. That's not foggy. 8)

[Frostillicus]

Well in that case...

http://www.poststar.com/news/local/article_c02fa2f8-209b-11df-94a9-001cc4c03286.html

[Lbtchnlgs]

Just talked to a close friend in N.Creek

It's f**king pouring. Must be warm air stuck in the mountains :evil:

It's 42*, temps won't be dropping below freezing tonight in S. ADKS. ANOTHER BUST :shock:

[Snowballs]

That's weird. It's snowing hard here. 2 more inches last hour, total 4.5, and coming down in these giant clusters of flakes. It has been snowing all day but never started to accumulate until a few hours ago. 27 degrees

[JC7727]

Just talked to a close friend in N.Creek

It's f**king pouring. Must be warm air stuck in the mountains :evil:

It's 42*, temps won't be dropping below freezing tonight in S. ADKS. ANOTHER BUST :shock:

lol no chance

[adksara]

Huh... in-laws out near Garnet Lake had 3+" inches as of 6 p.m. and it's still coming down with some fine snow around 30 degrees now (9:30 p.m.). They're at 1600' +/- a few and last I checked were predicted to have around 10-16" from this round of snow tonight.

Maybe some weird temp. thing down in the valley? Who knows. It's just snowing like crazy here in GF with about 5+" now.

[Frostillicus]

Well we've got around a foot down here in "civilization" and it's still snowing. It's wet and heavy, but not complete slop. Not sure if it'll be drier up North, but if not this stuff will fill in a lot of areas that need it and make some great base where we like to ski. :D The mountain is saying 17" in the last 24 hours. Can anyone confirm?

[Adk Keith]

12" in Igerna this morning at 5:30 and still snowing. :D

I hope you all appreciate this, since I'm the reason for it. If I hadn't popped my knee on Sunday this would have never happened. :cry:

[Danzilla]

Either your friend is busting your chops or you are trying to keep all the Joey's away from the freshies OR you are trying an opposite jinx:)

Report from the ground (in NC) is 10+ with another 4-6 on the way today. Power has been out 4-5 times already. The next one through may not be pretty with the high winds. Trees should be good if they are still standing.

You can all thank me for this event;) I got drunk with a couple of those snow gods I was talking about in Utah. I knocked one of the little buggers out and stuffed him in my boot bag. Hence the good news this week.

For those considering a trip to Utah - GO. We rode Snowbird, Park City, Solitude, and Snowbird while I was out there. We got 3-5 inches of fresh everyday we were there. Park City was not that impressive - too many groomers and too many flats. Solitude was awesome - especially the back bowls. Lots of fresh powder - especially in the trees. I don't normally do trees, but the snow out there made going into them a no brainer. Snowbird had great snow too. It is truely an experts mountain. Steeps, bowls, trees - everywhere. 290+ inches already at Snowbird this year. The best snow out there is on the Salt Lake side of the Wasatch.

The snow out there was like my top 5 or 10 days at Gore - every day. We stayed in downtown which was fun and much cheaper than the resorts. It also made it easier to get to the different resorts.

[Danzilla]

Sorry to hear about the knee Keith. That sucks. You can take all the credit:)

ACL? I have had my left one done twice (second time was to fix the botched job the first time). If it is an ACL my advice is to use a cadaver's ligament and not some graph from your own body. The first time they took a piece of my patella tendon. It didn't hold up. Now I have a big groove in my knee cap and I had to go through the recovery again.

[Adk Keith]

Sorry to hear about the knee Keith. That sucks. You can take all the credit:)

ACL? I have had my left one done twice (second time was to fix the botched job the first time). If it is an ACL my advice is to use a cadaver's ligament and not some graph from your own body. The first time they took a piece of my patella tendon. It didn't hold up. Now I have a big groove in my knee cap and I had to go through the recovery again.

Not sure till MRI. Possible meniscus tear. Will know on Monday. Thanks for the advice.

Positively puking in Lake George right now!!

[x10003q]

I spoke to a friend on the slopes at Gore and she said there is around a foot of heavy wet snow. It was still snowing at about 10:30am. There have been local power failures from downed trees, but not on the mountain.

My sister just called from Stratton were they have almost 20" of heavy wet snow and they still are getting pounded. The Gondola is closed at Stratton due to high winds.

Good thing I am at work. :evil:

[Danzilla]

Just heard from a neighbor in NC that it has turned back to snow (from NCP) around 10AM. Not sure how long it was r**ning. Hopefully it was all snow at the mountain. Looks like another foot could come today.

Headed up tomorrow. Monday is going to be a personal day.

[Harvey44]

Boy the radar looks close.

Those multi-colored radar shots are useful but not perfect in a borderline event like this one. Anything could be happening.

The intellicast is usually the most optimistic and today is no exception:

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/hfd_None_anim.gif

Nothing beats a real report. I'm sure we'll get something from someone by midafternoon. No matter what is falling, only the most diehard would ski bell-to-bell on day like today.

Personally I think the whole thing is pretty damn exciting.

[Harvey44]

This could be a good sign too. NWS has just moved Northern Warren into the Storm Warning area with western daks:

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ042&warncounty=NYC113&firewxzone=NYZ042&local_place1=North+River+NY&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning

And, reports from Kmart say that snow is falling about 1000 feet, and they are right in the green.

One more thing ... obviously what is falling is very wet. But unlike most normal "wet" storms, we aren't looking at a brutal cold front after this one passes. What is laying on the ground could be very skiable.

Hang in there people.

[x10003q]

1:55pm Thursday. I just spoke with a friend. It is snowing in NC. There is another 6-8 inches since the snow switched back from rain in the morning. The temps are right at 33 degrees F. The snow is still real heavy.

[Snowballs]

yeah!

[Lbtchnlgs]

I wouldn't say 6-8 today... only rode till 1145- Didn't do much on the bottom. Stayed up top lots of time in straightbrook glades.

Yesterday was PHENOMENAL. Too heavy to be enjoyed down below but up top it was SUPERB. Darkside was uber fun. Have some pics but time to head into work.

Harv' you'll have a good time this weekend- everybody was breaking up the thin crust we got from the ra*n. Got stuck in chati yesterafternoon waste deep snow in there. all glades are beautiful
go get it

[fujative.]

Anyone hear about a slide yesterday?

[Snowballs]

What a weird, weird storm! Yesterday I got 12" with it absolutely puking snow for some time. Today, nothing but **** almost all day, including now.

HOWEVER, go a few miles to the Southwest/West, say 30-40 minutes, and it is absolutely puking snow right now! They've just shown live TV shots from several areas out that way on the local TV news. Deep, Deep freshies including large drifts! They are getting hammered with 2 feet more expected by tomorrow afternoon on top of yesterday's 2 feet. 3"-6" more by Saturday. :shock: :shock: :shock:

The ****/snow dividing line today was very pronounced on local radar, running straight up the Hudson then moving Westward late afternoon. Gore's gonna be real borderline/on the fence but they said the ****/snow divide should move Eastward overnight. Gore could get hammered if that happens with an easy 1 foot and probably 2 feet if the line holds.

If you were here, You would never think it is snowing so hard just a few minutes from my house. Those TV shots from there were awesome. Even the recently plowed road was knee deep and the TV Reporter waded into a snowdrift that was over hip deep! All the while huge clusters of snow were falling hard. This wet snow has at times been bunching up and falling in " clusters of 20 flakes " per say, and it just pukes snow. That is what's happening right now just ever so close to Gore. This pattern is suppose to continue thru Saturday. Say your prayers.

[Harvey44]

Well I saw this earlier but didnt know exactly what to make of it:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
914 PM EST THU FEB 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
SARATOGA...NORTHERN WARREN AND EASTERN ULSTER COUNTIES
UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN ULSTER...AND ABOVE 1500 FEET IN
NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN SARATOGA COUNTIES. LESSER
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BELOW 1500 FEET
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SARATOGA AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES.

THE SITUATION IS COMPLEX WITH THE RAIN SNOW LINE CUTTING ACROSS
WARREN AND SARATOGA COUNTIES. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN CAUSING
THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW. WHERE IT IS SNOWING...THE SNOW WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ULSTER COUNTY.

[Danzilla]

Interesting. Any word from people traveling from Hudson Valley or NJ/NYC today would be much appreciated. We are planning on heading out around 3-4pm this afternoon from NNJ. The wife is wavering a bit though based on the snow and road conditions. Hoping to get up there tonight. Couple of my buds are up there today. I will post an update when I get up there.

D

[JC7727]

62 inches so far at Hunter Mt

[Harvey44]

Still lots of conflicting info. This information is all second hand:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2010/02/various-reports-from-warren-county.html

Will post whatever else I get until someone SKIS! and posts it up.