ajl50
11-27-2006, 03:06 PM
well as November closes we're looking at one of the warmest November’s on record for Burlington vt. We're looking at a monthly average right now around 43 degrees. If this value comes in correct that's easily in the top 5. So what does that mean for December? Based on the Newcomb weather station in the Adirondacks that might mean a little December snow and a decent winter snowfall.
4 of the 10 warmest novembers produced 4 of the 10 LEAST snowy Decembers including three of the first 4 least snowy Decembers while no warm Novembers produced top 10 snowy Decembers.
Furthermore warm Novembers produced three of the least snowy jan while only one of the of the 10 warmest Novembers were followed by top ten snowy winters (1995 - 10th snowiest winter ever) and 10 ten snowy months (feb. 1995- snowiest feb. ever).
However that last stat gives me some hope because a lot of weather people believe that 1994-1995 is a great analog winter for this one.
If that is the case here was the snow fall for
Newcomb ( adks)
Dec. 1994 - 12 inches, Overall winter- 72.3 inches with sustained nice sustained cold weather periods and a few good dumps.
However all of this is just past data and has NO bearing on what will happen. Just a simple example- Whiteface for example is nearly 1k higher than newcomb- so where as newcomb could get 1 inch whiteface could get 3.
I'm working on this for vermont...
check back later.
4 of the 10 warmest novembers produced 4 of the 10 LEAST snowy Decembers including three of the first 4 least snowy Decembers while no warm Novembers produced top 10 snowy Decembers.
Furthermore warm Novembers produced three of the least snowy jan while only one of the of the 10 warmest Novembers were followed by top ten snowy winters (1995 - 10th snowiest winter ever) and 10 ten snowy months (feb. 1995- snowiest feb. ever).
However that last stat gives me some hope because a lot of weather people believe that 1994-1995 is a great analog winter for this one.
If that is the case here was the snow fall for
Newcomb ( adks)
Dec. 1994 - 12 inches, Overall winter- 72.3 inches with sustained nice sustained cold weather periods and a few good dumps.
However all of this is just past data and has NO bearing on what will happen. Just a simple example- Whiteface for example is nearly 1k higher than newcomb- so where as newcomb could get 1 inch whiteface could get 3.
I'm working on this for vermont...
check back later.