Sick about the weather- cancel?

[tobnpr]

After a year of anxious anticipation waiting to get back, I'm looking at the weather forecast and the webcams showing no snow on the ground and I'm getting seriously ill. Doesn't it snow up there anymore?
Scheduled to return to LP Jan. 2nd, but now I'm forced to think about eating $1600 in airfare to avoid what looks to be a disaster. We're beginning skiers so not having more advanced options open isn't too much of a problem, but off the mountain we won't have anything else to do for a week with no snow on the ground. Man, this sucks.
Anyone have a crystal ball that says it's actually going to get cold and snow after XMAS? :( :( :(

After a year of anxious anticipation waiting to get back, I'm looking at the weather forecast and the webcams showing no snow on the ground and I'm getting seriously ill. Doesn't it snow up there anymore?
Scheduled to return to LP Jan. 2nd, but now I'm forced to think about eating $1600 in airfare to avoid what looks to be a disaster. We're beginning skiers so not having more advanced options open isn't too much of a problem, but off the mountain we won't have anything else to do for a week with no snow on the ground. Man, this sucks.
Anyone have a crystal ball that says it's actually going to get cold and snow after XMAS? :( :( :(
It's going to get cold again. There is plenty of tourist stuff to do around here. If we get a few inches of snow you can xc ski at van ho. Ski jumping, skating, drinking. The olympic oval is frozen and fun to skate on. Bobsled at van ho is fun. Think positive. :D :D :D :D

[tobnpr]

WW-
Thanks for the positive attitude. Did all the fun stuff last year (Bobsled, Luge, etc.)- the Luge was a blast and definitely want to do that again; the staff there was really cool, too.
Unfortunately we don't skate, either.
The weather was really weird last year when we came on President's day weekend. It was in the 50's the morning we got there, then dropped to minus digits for the rest of our stay with plenty of snow. It was the first time our kids had ever seen/played in the snow, so not having snow on the ground would be a real disappointment; that's the whole reason we're going.
I'll keep monitoring the long term forecast.
As you said, there's always drinking 8)

[KT22]

WW-
Thanks for the positive attitude. Did all the fun stuff last year (Bobsled, Luge, etc.)- the Luge was a blast and definitely want to do that again; the staff there was really cool, too.
Unfortunately we don't skate, either.
The weather was really weird last year when we came on President's day weekend. It was in the 50's the morning we got there, then dropped to minus digits for the rest of our stay with plenty of snow. It was the first time our kids had ever seen/played in the snow, so not having snow on the ground would be a real disappointment; that's the whole reason we're going.
I'll keep monitoring the long term forecast.
As you said, there's always drinking 8)

Have you thought about changing destinations - to perhaps the West Coast just to be on the safe side? I just returned from a couple of days in Utah, wasn't too bad for early season.

[tobnpr]

Oh well...
Weatherman says highs of 40 degrees or above (44 on Saturday with a 90% chance of rain :x ) until after XMAS, then a few days of snow showers, then more RAIN again on the 30th with a high of 37.
Hope things turn around for you guys up there, and soon.
For us, we're cancelling (Yippee- a few less touristas, right? :wink: )
Gonna try again in February over the holiday weekend. Hopefully it'll be good and cold by then with a few feet of natural on the ground. Merry XMAS :D

[NPN]

Oh well...
Weatherman says highs of 40 degrees or above (44 on Saturday with a 90% chance of rain :x ) until after XMAS, then a few days of snow showers, then more RAIN again on the 30th with a high of 37.
Hope things turn around for you guys up there, and soon.
For us, we're cancelling (Yippee- a few less touristas, right? :wink: )
Gonna try again in February over the holiday weekend. Hopefully it'll be good and cold by then with a few feet of natural on the ground. Merry XMAS :D

Sorry to hear it, and I hope you didn't have to eat all of that $1600.

[KT22]

Oh well...
Weatherman says highs of 40 degrees or above (44 on Saturday with a 90% chance of rain :x ) until after XMAS, then a few days of snow showers, then more RAIN again on the 30th with a high of 37.
Hope things turn around for you guys up there, and soon.
For us, we're cancelling (Yippee- a few less touristas, right? :wink: )
Gonna try again in February over the holiday weekend. Hopefully it'll be good and cold by then with a few feet of natural on the ground. Merry XMAS :D

Thats too bad. Who would have thought several months ago that the weather would be so terrible. I hope you'll be greeted with a ton of snow in February to compensate.

Good Luck

[ajl50]

boo on the cancel.
If I could change one thing I would tell WF to not link to weather.com 10 day forecast. It's crap. They have no accuracy past like 48 hrs and they are always warm because they do a crappy job of adjusting to elevation and don't care about the mountains at all. They just make a guess based on the NWS reporting station in plattsburg.
I would tell them to link to the NWS 5 day. It's accurate, updated 2-3 times a day and it's spot specific.
There will NOT be rain on the 30th that's a garbage forecast.

[tobnpr]

I agree that past a couple of days the forecasting may not be at all accurate. I even emailed our local weather guy here in Tampa and he was smart enough to be non-commital. I checked and I have until the 26th to cancel our room, so we're gonna wait those last days to make sure before I call. Here's hoping for a freak blizzard :mrgreen:

Ironically, my sis-in law and her family are stranded by the blizzard trying to get into Colorado to go skiing...

[Adirondackskier]

When I was a kid, there was no long range forecast, there was no weather channel. We picked our vacation weeks and come hell or high water we were there rain or shine or snowstorm. We made the best of it under whatever mother nature dealt us. Some of my most favorite family vacations were when the weather sucked, Noreasters in North Carolina, rain for a week straight while camping in the summer, less that optimal snow conditions.

The thing I remember most was not how much the weather sucked, but how much fun we had finding things to do as a family. Our family grew up with the attitude, we would rather spend a week with family on vacation over a week with family watching tv complaining about how much the weather sucked that we had to stay home.

[KT22]

When I was a kid, there was no long range forecast, there was no weather channel. We picked our vacation weeks and come hell or high water we were there rain or shine or snowstorm. We made the best of it under whatever mother nature dealt us. Some of my most favorite family vacations were when the weather sucked, Noreasters in North Carolina, rain for a week straight while camping in the summer, less that optimal snow conditions.

The thing I remember most was not how much the weather sucked, but how much fun we had finding things to do as a family. Our family grew up with the attitude, we would rather spend a week with family on vacation over a week with family watching tv complaining about how much the weather sucked that we had to stay home.

But now that we do have long range forcasts and the weather channel don't you think it's better for someone who is not local to the area to avoid spending several thousand dollars on a vacation that has a very strong chance of not meeting expectations? I think tobnpr is making a smart move to wait until there is a better chance for Wintry weather. I think a smarter move would be to spend the $100 per ticket change fee and choose a different destination. Don't get me wrong, I love Whiteface and Lake Placid but perhaps this just isn't the year for a Northeastern ski vacation. If a person is going to fly in anyways, I have to say that Steamboat is looking pretty good right now.

[-=koLLac=-]

I must say, if I were to fly anywhere it would probably be salt lake or denver, then get a hotel close to the mountains (Frisco's got real good deals and VERY good free connection to a bunch of awesome areas)

[St. Jerry]

Definetly cancel. Go to Colorado.

[fischerjunkie]

man its winter mixing right now and we got a good dusting in Glens Falls and its supposed to keep up for the next few days. think positive

[tobnpr]

I did cancel our plans on the last day possible, the 26th. We were supposed to be flying in today and looking at the webcams and the forecast for this week (rain and temps into the 40's) looks like I made the right call.
So here's the dilemma; I have re-booked a room (this time at the Golden Arrow) but because President's Day weekend is a holiday there's no refunds or cancellations after 30 days prior to arrival. Fortunately I only took a $50/ticket hit on the airfare, but I'm reluctant to re-book our flights.
Basically, I have two weeks to decide whether to commit to coming up in mid-Feb, and there's no turning back this time.

Adirondackskier, your post is well taken. We're beginning skiers, so having great conditions isn't important to us. What hooked us last year is the awesome natural beauty of the whole area. I'm sure it's great at other times of the year, but since this is the one and only time of the year we'll see snow we want to be sure it'll be there.

I know there's no crystal ball here, but based upon past years do you think it's a pretty safe bet that by mid-Feb it'll be nice and cold with a thick blanket of snow covering everything? Or, should we head west in Feb and hope next year's better?

[KT22]

I did cancel our plans on the last day possible, the 26th. We were supposed to be flying in today and looking at the webcams and the forecast for this week (rain and temps into the 40's) looks like I made the right call.
So here's the dilemma; I have re-booked a room (this time at the Golden Arrow) but because President's Day weekend is a holiday there's no refunds or cancellations after 30 days prior to arrival. Fortunately I only took a $50/ticket hit on the airfare, but I'm reluctant to re-book our flights.
Basically, I have two weeks to decide whether to commit to coming up in mid-Feb, and there's no turning back this time.

Adirondackskier, your post is well taken. We're beginning skiers, so having great conditions isn't important to us. What hooked us last year is the awesome natural beauty of the whole area. I'm sure it's great at other times of the year, but since this is the one and only time of the year we'll see snow we want to be sure it'll be there.

I know there's no crystal ball here, but based upon past years do you think it's a pretty safe bet that by mid-Feb it'll be nice and cold with a thick blanket of snow covering everything? Or, should we head west in Feb and hope next year's better?

Usually there is plenty of snow in February, but it should be said that usually there is plenty of snow at this time of year. So far this has been a very unusual year most likely due to the current El Nino, which is expected to last until May. At this point I don’t think that anyone can tell you with certainty if wintry conditions will exist in February due to the unusual conditions. I really do feel that 2006-2007 will set a benchmark against which all bad ski seasons will be measured against decades from now.
I would really consider a vacation out West at this point. If you have a chance, check out Steamboat Colorado. They have a lot of winter activities besides skiing such as winter horseback riding, tubing, etc.