The weather forecasts are all over the place for the next 5 days.

Me likey Accuweather's forecast for today and tomorrow which has more snow than anything else, mixed with some freezing rain and sleet. Unfortunately, one can never trust Accuweather. And they don't show anything for Saturday. Most of the other forecasts have lots of freezing rain and rain for today and tomorrow. Don't feed that negative vibe and everyone think Accuweather thoughts today.

Several forcasts put a 50/50 chance (or greater) of something happening Fri night/Sat. I told a coworker last Friday, who declared the winter over at that point, to expect something big next Fri/Sat. Cross your fingers.

Skidds - I like the stoke. Henry is a notorious optimist...but hey I'll take it.

Check out the newest Accuweather porn. I think the "w" in the word snow is right on top of Megatron's house:

Ahhh......if only temps on the ground were the key. What are the temps a little higher up in the atmosphere? That's what will really determine what lands on the ground.

Henry may be a notorious optimist, but he's going even more bonkers now. He's been talking about this storm coming for this Fri/Sat for a week now. Had his eye on the potential "Big Daddy" since last week. Now he's excited because all the various models have come together with some version of a "Big Daddy", the only question being exact track and whether snow makes it toward the coast or not.

In an effort not to jinx any potential storm, let me say he is most likely wrong......but one can, as you say, hope.

Harvey44 wrote:

Skidds - I like the stoke. Henry is a notorious optimist...but hey I'll take it. Check out the newest Accuweather porn. I think the "w" in the word snow is right on top of Megatron's house:

Yes, the W is right at home there I did give the crystal ball a look over today, and it was very hard to understand because it was bouncing all over the place

Keep the faith kiddies, the big one is a comin'

SKIdds wrote:

Ahhh......if only temps on the ground were the key. What are the temps a little higher up in the atmosphere? That's what will really determine what lands on the ground. Henry may be a notorious optimist, but he's going even more bonkers now. He's been talking about this storm coming for this Fri/Sat for a week now. Had his eye on the potential "Big Daddy" since last week. Now he's excited because all the various models have come together with some version of a "Big Daddy", the only question being exact track and whether snow makes it toward the coast or not.

I follow Henry because I love his optimism. I also love the way he never gets the good stuff in State College or wherever he is...and we do!

I'm not one to be fooled by ground temps. I do think it's remarkable that the HIGH temp for the day showed a 31 degree spread from Phil to Albany. That happens with low temps fairly regularly but not the highs. It's also funny the way we had a frontal passage with out much oobleck falling. If only the front would stay put down there. Down boy down!

One thing about this year...most of the ncp that has fallen during our "warm ups" this year..was frozen enough to preserve our base...so we live to fight another day. That sixteen inch dump last Weds was all it took for the mountain to go 100% again.

"Think positive and good things will come " (Darkside handbook page 2 paragraph 11)

Heh, got skunked. Arrived Sun. eve, awoke to rain showers Monday AM. The weather cleared out by 11 so we got a fine blue sky afternoon of skiing in.

Monday evening, the local weather talking heads were predicting ice, freezing rain and general bad mojo for all day Tuesday.

The lovely mrs midweeker and I figured that was that so we took a ride to Lake Placid for lunch.

The ice, end of the modern world weather that was promised never arrived.

Today our last there, we awoke to the freezing rain that was promised on Tuesday. My car looked like an ice cube so we pulled the plug and hit the road.

We are not happy

Speaking of Henry M's optimism, this would be a sweet storm track:

I duno guys, I am not liking the trend with this storm each run is coming in more west with the low track which means warmer and rain. As of now I see this being more of a rain event with maybe some snow at the tail end.

I just booked a flight to florida sunday-thursday. I'll try and bring some of this warm air with me, drop it off in New Jersey or something...

The latest computer models this morning look a bit more promising they move storm slightly to the East, the snow / freezing rain & sleet line is more or less over Gore. Keep your fingers crossed if the storm tracks just slightly more to the EAST it would be very very good.

Ok...obviously this isn't all stoke...it's all over the place...from our buddy Henry at Accuweather. Look at all those maps...we need this dang thing to nudge itself about 50 or 100 miles east.

I'm not up this weekend...I'll be down here in the TORNADO zone...but all the best to the faithful.

Tonight from NWS in KALB:

QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE OF A SNOW PTYPE START FOR NRN
HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 1.0" OF
SNOW AT PISECO...AND A QUICK TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN INDIAN
LAKE. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 32-35F RANGE. WEBCAM AT OLD FORGE
SHOWS SOME SNOW FALLING. EVAPORATIVE COOLING LIKELY THE CULPRIT FOR
THE QUICK CHANGE TO MODERATE WET SNOW. THE WET BULB TEMPS ARE IN THE
LOWER 30S THERE. WE KEPT SNOW AND SLEET WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN IN PRIOR TO 06Z IN THE ADIRONDACK REGION. STILL LOOKING FOR
2-4" OVERNIGHT. NEW HOURLY TEMPS/OB TRENDS REDONE. ALL POPS NOW
CATEGORICAL.

It looks like finally the cold air is sagging south on the radar...the big white in the upper left just showed up in the last 3 frames of this loop. Not sure if this is bad or good...be safe up there.




Also from the NWS...I think we are in the 2-6" range on the snowfall:

SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR HAS ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK LATE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN
PLAIN RAIN. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN
AND SOME SLEET. THIS WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ICE BUILDUP OF ONE
THIRD TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ON COLDER...EXPOSED
OBJECTS...PARTICULARLY TREES.

AS EVEN COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW. BY THE TIME
THE SNOW ENDS LATE TONIGHT...TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THIS STORM WILL
REACH 4 TO 12 INCHES.

POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA DUE TO THE
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT.