It's pouring

Not super stoke I admit, but the best I can do after a tough day down here. From Accuweather:

Time after time this winter, long-range computer model output has shown storms tracking from the Central states to off the mid-Atlantic coast, raising the specter of snow in the Northeast. When push came to shove, however, these disturbances have turned northward west of the Appalachians. As a result the Snow Belt has been from the Ohio Valley across the eastern Great Lakes and then into Ontario and Quebec. These storms have brought primarily rain through the mid-Atlantic region.

Later this week, a new storm is advertised to be in about the same place as some of the others. The very latest information that I have takes the center of the storm through northern Virginia, then off the coast east of Delaware. Pardon my skepticism, why shouldn't this storm do the same thing as the others and turn north farther west?

I guess I am the Larry Flynt of the Gore Forum. It sure is early for this weather porn, but here it is:

From Herb Stevens, it's about a week old too. Best I could do:

Why am I confident about the next 3-5 weeks? Well, first of all, there is plenty of cold air available to tap into, thanks to an incredibly cold winter over the Arctic regions. As an aside, the extent of Arctic sea ice has made a remarkable comeback from last summer...something that supporters of human-induced global warming aren’t making much noise about, but that is a different discussion for a different time. The cold air typically spread out in March, as the polar vortex weakens. The vortex tends to keep the cold air bottled up over the highest latitudes when it is strong, and this year’s version of the PV has been particularly robust. Now, it’s nice to have that cold air available, but you also have to have the delivery mechanism necessary to direct the cold to where you want it to be. An upper level trough over the eastern half of the country is what we are looking for, and not just a transient trough, but one that will set up shop for a while. That setup has been hard to find this winter, as most large-scale upper troughs have been parked in the West and when they have come to the East, they have swiftly moved through the region, or weakened as they approached. The one element that has been missing this winter that is critical to persistent cold in the East is a blocking pattern over the north Atlantic. Well, it looks as though just such a feature is about to develop. This weekend’s messy storm is actually going to help the process, as it will transport heat into the higher latitudes east of the Maritimes. Another storm will threaten the eastern U.S. late next weekend, and regardless of whether or not that is a snow producer, it will also help to build the block up near Greenland.

http://www.snocountry.com/article.php?story=20080308133604499

From NWS ALB:

SUN NT-TUE...QUITE AN INTERESTING ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...ESP FOR MON-TUE. 00Z/18 GFS INDICATES A WEAK WAVE
PASSING OFF TO OUR S...WHILE 00Z/18 ECMWF HINTS AT A POTENTIALLY
ROBUST WINTER STORM FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR REGION. THE 00Z/18
MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GENERALLY ARE MORE BENIGN...ALTHOUGH A FEW
MEMBERS DO HINT AT A STORMIER PATTERN. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
SLIGHT CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E. HOWEVER...THIS PORTION OF
FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER IN CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. POTENTIAL BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS NE
CANADA/N ATLANTIC USUALLY FORBODES A RELATIVELY STORMY PATTERN
ACROSS EASTERN NOAM...ALTHOUGH STRONG BLOCKING CAN ALSO SUPPRESS THE
STORM TRACK TOO FAR S OF OUR REGION. EITHER WAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE COLDER THAN SEASONAL TEMPS...WITH MAXES IN THE 20S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD THE GFS PROVE CORRECT...EVEN COLDER MAXES ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT MINS THAT COULD DIP CLOSE TO...OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SOUTHERN VT BY TUE AM.

From Megatron HQ 7:20 am

2-3 inches of gack with a crust on top, and a steady sleet

Think Snow!!

Hey, 2-3 inches of crusted gack with sleet on top adds to the base and works toward extending the season, and that ain't bad. Hopefully the rain coming this afternnon doesn't do too much damage.

Looking at the 15 day it would seem that we need to stop hoping for powder days and get ready to feast on tasty corn.

From the Gore site - "Please note that some trails will remain closed today, due to overnight weather. They will reopen Friday, as grooming resumes and weather moderates. "

Does that mean that was a lot of rain last night? Ice?

or is there a fresh foot of powder, and they're waiting for us to get up there tomorrow before they let it get poached

mattyR wrote:

From the Gore site - "Please note that some trails will remain closed today, due to overnight weather. They will reopen Friday, as grooming resumes and weather moderates. " Does that mean that was a lot of rain last night? Ice? or is there a fresh foot of powder, and they're waiting for us to get up there tomorrow before they let it get poached

The top of the mountain, or basically from half way up the gondola, is bullet proof. We really did not get much rain, a steady mist all day, but the temps were, and still are, just below freezing. If we are not going to get snow, we need warmer temps. The mountain is open full time through 4/6, and weekends thereafter, weather permitting, so time is running short for some sweet warm spring corn days.

gore might pick up 6-8 inches tonight

Gore reported 8 inches

I'd like to thank everyone who contributed to the weather thread this year.

Harv