Gore Mountain Weather 09/10

[fujative.]

Hey Harv I see you have me in your snowfall counter

I headed down to check out Jamboree. Sunway Chair to the mid-station might be 200 vertical feet. (Anybody know?) I wasn't expecting too much.

According to Google Earth it's 280'

[Harvey44]

Hey Harv I see you have me in your snowfall counter

Sunway Chair to the mid-station might be 200 vertical feet. (Anybody know?)

According to Google Earth it's 280'

Fuje ...thanks for the info. I included it in today's blog entry.

Hey for the snowfall counter, I need your elevation. I just guessed 1000 feet because NC is somewhere around 1000.

* * *

OK the weather....

Lionel Hutz is out with his forecast for the upcoming event. It's pretty detailed:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/...-midweek-mess/

Executive Summary: Pretty much every possible type of precip.

This is one of those events I don't get. It LOOKS like it should be all r**n. But every met out there is calling for a significant amount of snow/sleet and frzrn mixed together. At this early stage, anything frozen is a plus. I think we'll end up in the plus zone after it's all done.

I'll tell you one thing ... if you are going to have an El Nino year, THIS is exactly what you want to see:



A serious intrusion of cold that storms coming from the west coast have to go AROUND. "Just hang a left at Cape Hatteras please."

After this event...major cold is going to blow over some VERY WARM lakes. Could be a hug dump on the Tug.

Maybe we'll see some video from Skimore.

[fujative.]

Fuje ...thanks for the info. I included it in today's blog entry.

Hey for the snowfall counter, I need your elevation. I just guessed 1000 feet because NC is somewhere around 1000.

When was it from? Last weekend?
Because that was at Gore when I was riding the Gondi. I'm at 340', we didn't have anything then.

[JC7727]

Harvey, yes this storm on wed looks like a lakes cutter. However, the strong WAA out ahead of it should provide a "thump snow" where I can see gore getting 4-8 inches before going over to a mix and than most likely a dry slot. All in all I am pretty excited for this event, should be a good and heavy wet snow. Good base.

my thoughts remain the same

[Denison]

my bet on this storm is 12"

[fujative.]

I'm guessing 8-9"

[Harvey44]

Let's hear the guesses.

NWS just went from the WW Watch to Warning. Here's she comes.

The questions anyone guessing needs to think about... what elevation are we talking? Gore base (1500')?

And is the question...how much snow will fall... or ....what will be the depth of that snow when the event is over?

Everything I can see put the Adks in a pretty good spot for this one. The 48 hr snowfall map is pretty exciting right now.

Hard to believe that we'd do better than Vt, but that is what models are implying. (Models don't seem to adequately account for No Vt wrap around I think.)

Looks like WF is in the best spot. I think up top they'll get mostly good stuff.

[Lbtchnlgs]

Discussion: This is a particularly difficult storm to forecast snow amounts for due to the expected mixed precipiation nature to the system and the inherent uncertainties in how long each of the precipitation modes, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will last, as well as an expectation that local terrain will play a big role the distribution and amounts. Therefore, forecast error will be higher than typical with this system..
.
With that said a period of moderate to heavy snow is likely to occur in most if not all areas for at least a couple of hours leaving enough snow to shovel and plow in most locations. Terrain enhancement with a strong SE flow is likely along the eastern slopes of the Catskills as well as in the higher elevations (1000' and up) in Berkshire and Bennington counties where I'm indicating as much as 5"-9", especially at elevation in these areas..
.
Cold air will last longer in the Adirondacks, along with strong upslope flow which should lead to a high end moderate snowfall of 5"-9" there as well.
.
Terrain shadowing is likely in portion of the upper Hudson valley, to Bennington, VT and the lower elevations in NW Berkshire County where amounts will likely be less, on the order of 2"-4"..
.
Another area to watch for potential elevated snow amounts in a pattern where strong SE flow is occurring, is in the Lake George/Saratoga region where past patterns suggest, if the cold air can hang on long enough, upslope flow will cause enhanced snow accumulations. Discussion: This is a particularly difficult storm to forecast snow amounts for due to the expected mixed precipiation nature to the system and the inherent uncertainties in how long each of the precipitation modes, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will last, as well as an expectation that local terrain will play a big role the distribution and amounts. Therefore, forecast error will be higher than typical with this system..
.
With that said a period of moderate to heavy snow is likely to occur in most if not all areas for at least a couple of hours leaving enough snow to shovel and plow in most locations. Terrain enhancement with a strong SE flow is likely along the eastern slopes of the Catskills as well as in the higher elevations (1000' and up) in Berkshire and Bennington counties where I'm indicating as much as 5"-9", especially at elevation in these areas..
.
Cold air will last longer in the Adirondacks, along with strong upslope flow which should lead to a high end moderate snowfall of 5"-9" there as well.
.
Terrain shadowing is likely in portion of the upper Hudson valley, to Bennington, VT and the lower elevations in NW Berkshire County where amounts will likely be less, on the order of 2"-4"..
.
Another area to watch for potential elevated snow amounts in a pattern where strong SE flow is occurring, is in the Lake George/Saratoga region where past patterns suggest, if the cold air can hang on long enough, upslope flow will cause enhanced snow accumulations.



Can't decide to skip classes tomorrow and head up. There's going to be snow of course, but I don't wanna miss classes right before finals and get up there to get rained on and have to see a pow day go kaput.

[Snowballs]

I'ld shoot for Thursday/Friday. Tomorrow doesn't look like a good day to drive. This storm has dumped 3-4 ft. in parts of the country. I'm gonna fantasize that it lingers over the Great Lakes and the Dacks and pukes 4 ft!

A couple things in Lbtchnlgs' post sound good and raise red flags........cold air lasting longer in the Dacks, Lake George area upslope flow will cause enhanced accumulations.....

Maybe this thing will drag it's feet as it comes thru. It's passing over the warm waters of the Great Lakes. It could pick up a lot of moisture.

[Harvey44]

Discussion: This is a particularly difficult storm to forecast snow amounts for due to the expected mixed precipiation nature to the system and the inherent uncertainties in how long each of the precipitation modes, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will last, as well as an expectation that local terrain will play a big role the distribution and amounts. Therefore, forecast error will be higher than typical with this system..
.
With that said a period of moderate to heavy snow is likely to occur in most if not all areas for at least a couple of hours leaving enough snow to shovel and plow in most locations. Terrain enhancement with a strong SE flow is likely along the eastern slopes of the Catskills as well as in the higher elevations (1000' and up) in Berkshire and Bennington counties where I'm indicating as much as 5"-9", especially at elevation in these areas..
.
Cold air will last longer in the Adirondacks, along with strong upslope flow which should lead to a high end moderate snowfall of 5"-9" there as well.
.
Terrain shadowing is likely in portion of the upper Hudson valley, to Bennington, VT and the lower elevations in NW Berkshire County where amounts will likely be less, on the order of 2"-4"..
.
Another area to watch for potential elevated snow amounts in a pattern where strong SE flow is occurring, is in the Lake George/Saratoga region where past patterns suggest, if the cold air can hang on long enough, upslope flow will cause enhanced snow accumulations. Discussion: This is a particularly difficult storm to forecast snow amounts for due to the expected mixed precipiation nature to the system and the inherent uncertainties in how long each of the precipitation modes, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will last, as well as an expectation that local terrain will play a big role the distribution and amounts. Therefore, forecast error will be higher than typical with this system..
.
With that said a period of moderate to heavy snow is likely to occur in most if not all areas for at least a couple of hours leaving enough snow to shovel and plow in most locations. Terrain enhancement with a strong SE flow is likely along the eastern slopes of the Catskills as well as in the higher elevations (1000' and up) in Berkshire and Bennington counties where I'm indicating as much as 5"-9", especially at elevation in these areas..
.
Cold air will last longer in the Adirondacks, along with strong upslope flow which should lead to a high end moderate snowfall of 5"-9" there as well.
.
Terrain shadowing is likely in portion of the upper Hudson valley, to Bennington, VT and the lower elevations in NW Berkshire County where amounts will likely be less, on the order of 2"-4"..
.
Another area to watch for potential elevated snow amounts in a pattern where strong SE flow is occurring, is in the Lake George/Saratoga region where past patterns suggest, if the cold air can hang on long enough, upslope flow will cause enhanced snow accumulations.

DUDE. You have been holding out on me.